Post-pandemic recovery | CO2 emissions jumped in 2022

A hundred scientists unveiled Thursday on the sidelines of COP27, in Egypt, the most recent bulletin of the planet in the face of climate change. With the post-pandemic economic recovery, global CO emissions₂ increased by 1% compared to 2021, while they have increased by an average of 0.5% per year for the past 10 years.

Eric-Pierre Champagne
The Press

Reverse the trend

The report titled Global Carbon Budget 2022 and signed by 106 scientists indicates that emissions of CO₂ at the end of 2022 will total 40.6 billion tonnes, very close to the 2019 record of 40.9 billion tonnes. The group of international researchers is particularly concerned to note that the increase in carbon dioxide emissions has reached 1%, thus reversing the trend established for a decade. “Between 2000 and 2010, emissions were increasing very, very rapidly, by 3% per year. We were on a really accelerated slope, recalls Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change sciences at the University of East Anglia, in the United Kingdom, and co-author of the report. We have succeeded with climate policies in reducing the slope to 0.5%, but we are still on an upward trajectory. The trajectory must decrease, but we must also bring it to zero. It’s urgent. »

The fault of fossil fuels

Of the 40.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ that will have been sent into the atmosphere by the end of the year, 36.6 billion tonnes come from fossil fuels. These have literally exploded over the past 60 years, rising from 9.3 billion tonnes in 1960 to more than 36 billion tonnes in 2022. Conversely, emissions from deforestation and land use change land shows a downward trend. They point to 3.9 billion tonnes in 2022, or 9.6% of total CO emissions.₂. The observation is crystal clear: without a drastic reduction in emissions from fossil fuels, there is no salvation. “Hydrocarbon-based energy production is the sinews of war,” recalls Annie Chaloux, professor at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke.

An extra difficult track

Like the skier who takes a slope rated with two black diamonds (double-diamond in English), the road to carbon neutrality in 2050 promises to be perilous, recalls the report. Scientists warn that global CO2 emissions will need to be reduced₂ 1.4 billion tonnes per year over the next 27 years. An annual effort equivalent to the reduction in emissions observed in 2020 due to health restriction measures. At the current rate, the carbon budget needed (380 billion tonnes) to limit warming to 1.5 degrees will be exceeded in nine years, the report notes. “If it continues like this, we are in projections that are well above 2 degrees,” says Corinne Le Quéré. When you think that at 1.1 degrees so far, it’s causing damage now visible, so it’s going to get worse. »

A few notes of hope

The report Global Carbon Budget 2022 Still contains some good news. It states that 24 countries have succeeded in reducing their CO2 emissions.₂ between 2012 and 2021. Moreover, by the end of 2022, China will have reduced its emissions by 0.9% while they will increase by 1.5% in the United States. The European Union, despite the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, will succeed in reducing its emissions by 0.8%. Conversely, India will post a 6% increase. “We are seeing significant progress, but what is frustrating is that the magnitude of the issues is not recognized. The magnitude of the response needed is not recognized. We are not at the level”, underlines Corinne Le Quéré. Annie Chaloux adds for her part “that we must see structural changes” to achieve results. “But that’s not what we’re seeing right now. »

The ultimate measurement tool

At the end of the year, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere will peak at 417.2 ppm (parts per million), the report said. However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this should not exceed 350 ppm in order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. Remember that according to scientists, it is necessary to go back several million years in time to find a concentration greater than 400 ppm in the Earth’s atmosphere. This limit was crossed again in 2013. The richest countries have also largely contributed to this phenomenon since the pre-industrial era. They must set an example, emphasizes Annie Chaloux, in particular by demonstrating “energy sobriety”. “We do things on the margins, we don’t do things up to the challenges,” concludes Corinne Le Quéré.