The French political landscape experienced an earthquake of a still unknown magnitude, Sunday June 9, with the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron, immediately after the failure of the presidential camp in the European elections. By acceding to the request of the National Rally, the big winner of the election, the head of state reshuffles all the parliamentary cards, while the far right advances as the favorite of an election organized urgently. Facing it, Renaissance and its allies, the parties of the ex-Nupes and Les Républicains will try to appear as the best bulwark for the RN.
Franceinfo takes stock of the strategies of the different camps to counter the announced progression of the far right during these anticipated legislative elections, on June 30 and July 7.
The majority wants to expand its narrow base in the face of extremes
Stunned, “stunned”, the presidential majority lost its contingent of parliamentarians with the surprise announcement of the dissolution on Sunday evening. The 250 deputies from Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons said goodbye to their mandate, at least for four weeks. For the President of the Republic, the objective is to find “a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony”he declared in his speech.
This choice seems like a daring bet: that of winning deputies, or at least not losing any, while the majority suffered a scathing setback in the European elections. To win it, Renaissance and its allies are banking on a republican reflex among voters hostile to the National Rally, who could vote for candidates from the central bloc facing the extreme right. “Now it’s no longer the same vote as in the European elections,” warns a majority strategist.
“We are going to say to the French: ‘Do you want the RN program or ours? Are you with us or against us?'”
A framework of the majorityat franceinfo
Before addressing the French, the supporters of the Head of State want to convince some of their adversaries to form an alliance before Sunday, the deadline for submitting applications. On the evening of the announcement of the dissolution, the boss of Renaissance, Stéphane Séjourné, told AFP that the Macron camp “will give[it] the inauguration” to outgoing MPs from other parties “part of the republican field” and wishing “get involved in a clear project” around the presidential majority.
The message was heard and repeated by the Macronist troops. “I call for a local republican arc to beat the RN”, for example, tweeted Monday morning Brigitte Liso, outgoing Renaissance MP from the North. This attitude raises questions, while the Republican front has already shown signs of weakness in the past. “In 2022, the tie-up vote collapsed when we had duels in the second round. Is that still going to be the case?”asks Mathieu Gallard, research director of the Ipsos France polling institute.
The left, very tempted by union, is divided on its conditions
It’s the word most shared on the left since Emmanuel Macron’s announcement: union. The parties which formed the Nupes from the 2022 legislative campaign, before leaving dispersed for the European elections, are thinking of uniting again to try to counter the far right, which currently has 88 deputies in the lower house.
As of Sunday evening, the outgoing deputy La France insoumise François Ruffin, champion of the union for several years, called on several of his interlocutors on the left to form a “popular Front” facing the National Rally and its possible allies. Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party, supported this initiative on Monday morning in order to evacuate the “risk” to see the National Rally compose the next government.
Other left-wing voices also called for negotiations to reach an agreement on the candidates to be presented in the legislative elections. “Our responsibility, of the left and the environmentalists, is to come together, and to be ready for June 30”entrusted the head of the environmentalist list to the Europeans, Marie Toussaint, to franceinfo, Sunday evening.
“I refuse the war of the left, we must find a way to rebuild ourselves.”
Marie Toussaint, head of the Les Ecologistes-EELV listat franceinfo
Between the wishes for union and its concrete realization for the first round, the challenge is nevertheless significant for the left, which must decide the question of nominations in the 577 constituencies and the program to defend. The task was further complicated with the speaking out of certain socialists, reluctant or even hostile to the former Nupes. “Raphaël Glucksmann’s score illuminates the path we must take and which I have been defending for a long time”, tweeted Carole Delga, president of the Occitanie region. The line carried by the head of the PS-Place publique list in the European elections “must be the one that allows the left and environmentalists to come together”declared Valérie Rabault, PS executive, on X. Guillaume Garot, outgoing socialist deputy for Mayenne, even explained on Monday France Blue that he refused to work with La France insoumise, which he accuses of “excesses”.
“This gathering can only take place in the clarity and coherence which have been so lacking since 2022. It must also close the page of denials of the measures of the shared government program of the Nupes”, for its part warned La France insoumise in a press release, late in the night from Sunday to Monday. The party denounces “the ambiguity of certain components on the major subjects of the European election campaign”. The PS and its ally Place publique responded with another press release, Monday afternoon, demanding a “clear cape” accompanied by around ten program points, and claiming to be “clearly ahead of the left” to the Europeans. “Between the rebels and the Socialist Party, there is a bit of an ex relationship. But for child custody, in the event of divorce, you have to be adults”hopes Sandra Regol, outgoing environmentalist MP and defender of Nupes.
Officials from La France insoumise sent a “meeting proposal” Monday “afternoon” to others “political formations of the Nupes” (the PS, the Communist Party, the Ecologists-EELV and Generations), for “work towards unity and clarity”. A meeting was underway at the Ecologists’ headquarters late Monday afternoon, noted a franceinfo journalist on site. At the same time, François Ruffin announced on launching a call for signatures to support its project “popular Front”. Among the first signatories, elected officials from all the Nupes parties with the exception of the PS.
The right excludes an alliance with the presidential camp
On the side of the Republicans (LR), there is no question of allying with the majority for the legislative elections. “Macronism always means more taxes, immigration and insecurity. True to our values, we will lead this campaign around the values of the right!”castigated the president of the party, Eric Ciotti, on the social network from Sunday evening. Some LR deputies have already announced that they are going it alone. “I will campaign in fidelity to my right-wing values to oppose the decline of France into which Macronism has plunged us!”for example stated on Christelle D’intorni, outgoing MP for Alpes-Maritimes.
The majority camp defends its coalition proposal as a means of blocking the far right. “When there is a risk of an election of a deputy from the National Rally, which is our first political adversary, but also from La France insoumise, it is preferable to vote for another person, from another political group”justified Clément Beaune on franceinfo. So giving up on this alliance means refusing to block the RN? “The risk is not we who make the country take itprotests LR Patrick Hetzel, also an outgoing MP. It was the president who took it with the policy he has been pursuing for seven years. We shouldn’t reverse the roles.”
What about the hand extended by the far right to the Republicans? Marion Maréchal, head of the Reconquest list in the European elections, said:ready to meet in the coming days Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, Eric Ciotti and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan to work together on the alternative that our country demands”. Monday, at the end of the afternoon, it was Jordan Bardella, winner of the Europeans and boss of the RN, who declared that he “stretched out his hand” to the Republicans, claiming to have had “discussions” with some of their executives. An assertion which had not been corroborated by any leader of the right-wing party on Monday evening. L’The option of an alliance with the far right is rejected out of hand by certain elected Republican officials. “Neither nor. Nor Macron. Nor Le Pen, defended on the outgoing deputy for Aisne Julien Dive. The responsible reconstruction of the country will take time, but it requires values, compromise is not one of them.”