Politics | The hidden race for Trudeau’s succession

(Ottawa) Justin Trudeau was asked the question in the days following the federal election on September 20. He was asked again during his year-end interviews with major television networks, after a short four-week parliamentary session.

Joël-Denis Bellavance
Press

The answer has remained the same. And unequivocally. Yes, he intends to lead the Liberal Party of Canada during the next election campaign. He says he still has “great things” to achieve.

“This is an extremely legitimate question. […] But I entered politics to serve the people of Papineau and serve Canadians with everything I had, ”declared Mr. Trudeau in an interview with journalist Patrice Roy broadcast on RDI on December 17.

“In a time of crisis, we were able to do great things and we were able to learn how to do great things that I now want to use to fight against climate change even harder, the housing crisis, reconciliation [avec les Premières Nations]. Great things to do, and I can’t wait to do them, ”he added in the same breath.

Barely re-elected at the head of a second minority government in a row, Justin Trudeau would have surprised political observers if he had said otherwise. He would immediately have become a weakened prime minister just as the pandemic continues to rage.

The fact remains that the Liberal leader was unable to win a majority government in the 2019 and 2021 elections, after winning a majority in 2015. In addition, the Liberal Party lost the popular vote to the Conservative Party in the last two elections. , even though it won the most seats to form a minority government. Finally, the Liberal candidates have found, by going door to door during the last campaign, that their leader’s star has faded considerably over the years.

Despite the intentions expressed by Justin Trudeau, the little behind-the-scenes games in anticipation of a race for his succession have already begun.

At the end of November, the daily The Globe and Mail reported that Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will be entitled to a bio to be released in the fall of 2023, if not sooner, if a leadership race is launched before. The author of the upcoming book, Catherine Tsalikis, wishes to recount the highlights of the life of “the most powerful woman” on the Canadian political scene. For many, the publication of this biography is a clear signal.

In the liberal ranks, Chrystia Freeland is considered the runner-up to Justin Trudeau. M^me Freeland was also renewed in his ministerial functions, two weeks before his boss announced the composition of the cabinet. The party establishment, increasingly rooted in Toronto, is ready to rally in favor of the finance minister at the appropriate time. In its 150-year history, the Liberal Party of Canada has never had a woman at its helm. Chrystia Freeland is considered the best candidate to shatter that glass ceiling.

The Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, also aspires to lead the Liberal Party. Within the Liberal ranks, there is no doubt that he will be on the starting line as soon as Justin Trudeau signals his intention to pass the torch. Elected in 2015, the energetic minister is popular with the Liberals who are calling for tighter management of public finances and targeted investments, these “Blue Liberals” nostalgic for Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin, John Manley and company. Since entering politics, Mr. Champagne has headed several important departments, including International Trade, Infrastructure and Communities, Foreign Affairs and, finally, Industry. If M^me Freeland can hope for the support of the establishment, Mr. Champagne has more the qualities to convince the militant base of the party.

Several lend to the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, the ambition to also embark on the race. Since the Liberals came to power, Mr.^me Joly has become the symbol of perseverance in politics. After a difficult start at Heritage, where the Netflix tax file unfairly tarnished its image, she rebounded by directing the Ministry of Economic Development, Tourism and Official Languages. During the last election campaign, Mr.^me Joly saved the Liberal campaign in Quebec by mobilizing troops in a dozen ridings that were in the process of being converted to the Bloc Québécois. By co-chairing the national campaign, she has established a network of contacts across the country who could give her a helping hand when the time is right. She could also use her influence to crown whoever succeeds Justin Trudeau.

Already seen as a mainstay of the cabinet after just two years in Ottawa, Defense Minister Anita Anand could come under heavy pressure to run for party leadership. His time at the Department of Public Services and Procurement impressed many Liberals. “During cabinet meetings, everyone pays attention to what she says. She is in control of all her files. She never speaks to say nothing, ”summed up a liberal source who saw her at work. His fluency in French has also improved a lot since 2019.

As for the possible candidacy of the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Mark Carney, it does not generate as much enthusiasm any more.

He has been courted by influential Liberals for nearly a decade to enter the arena. He always preferred to skip his turn. He did it again in the last ballot when he was offered the riding of Ottawa Center practically on a silver platter. We also note that his inability to adjust his speech to address the most loyal liberal activists could be a drag in the election campaign. Some like to compare him to former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff.

In the Commons, seats were redistributed following the last federal election and the appointment of a new cabinet. When the camera landed on Justin Trudeau during question period during the short parliamentary session this fall, the same four faces also appeared on the screen: Chrystia Freeland, François-Philippe Champagne, Mélanie Joly and Anita Anand. Four ministers who cherish the ambition to take control of the party one day. A premonitory sign of the struggle to come.