The author is a former conservative strategist. He was a political adviser in the Harper government as well as in the opposition
In politics, it is customary to draw up a balance sheet after 100 days in power, but the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) will have far less to make his mark. With the House of Commons resuming on September 19, he will have just eight days to prepare to face Justin Trudeau from his new seat as leader of the official opposition, surrounded by a shadow cabinet and a caucus that he hopes unified.
Barring a major twist, it is Pierre Poilievre who will be declared leader of the PCC on Saturday, at the end of a race which he will have dominated without restraint. The new leader will have several tasks to accomplish very quickly, even almost simultaneously. The exercise is somewhat reminiscent of the 12 labors of Hercules.
The image, in politics, is as important as the message. Saturday evening, the winner will have to deliver a unifying message, addressing the losing clan in particular. Will there be a change in tone between candidate Poilievre and new leader Poilievre? One thing is certain, the loser will have to send a strong message to his supporters: the time has come to rally against Justin Trudeau. But will he?
The media are often invited to the first caucus meeting to hear the leader’s speech. If so, reporters will note the applause punctuating his speech, while noting those who abstain. It will be the same for question period. Projecting an image of unity will be crucial.
The new leader may appoint a deputy. We are used to a man-woman duo within the conservative movement, a duo that respects geographical balance and the representation of currents of thought. Lisa Raitt and Leona Alleslev served under Andrew Scheer, and it was Candice Bergen who served alongside Erin O’Toole. Who will be Pierre Poilievre’s number two? The question still remains. He could also decide not to use this function, like Stephen Harper.
In my opinion, Michael Chong should be seriously considered for this position. Belonging to the progressive wing of the party, he has the respect of all elected officials, who recognize him as the defender of the rights and privileges of MPs. Naming him would send a unifying message to caucus members. Mr. Poilievre will also have to appoint a leader in the House, a crucial position in a minority government situation, because it allows him to negotiate with the other opposition parties to guide parliamentary work and score points. Gérard Deltell and Candice Bergen held this position under MM. O’Toole and Scheer. A name comes to mind to succeed them: Andrew Scheer, who would thus make a return to the fore.
Finally, there remains the highly coveted position of Question Period Coordinator and Caucus Liaison Officer. The coordinator manages the deputies’ right to speak. It’s not uncommon for them to complain to the boss when they feel they haven’t had enough time or visibility.
Balancing national and local issues is not an easy task. Traditionally, Quebec enjoys an advantage within the organizational structure through the position of Quebec Lieutenant. Pierre Paul-Hus, the only Quebec MP who supports Mr. Poilievre, will most likely be appointed to this position.
The galloping inflation
The shadow cabinet is THE big puzzle. The problem is less those who will join it than those who will be excluded. Mr Poilievre received the support of 62 MPs in the race. However, he only has about thirty positions of responsibility to distribute. And he can’t just name his supporters. He must also decide whether to make the change of responsibilities before the start of the school year, with very little time to assert his leadership, or whether to wait for a dip to do so.
The consolation prize for the excluded will be the chairmanship or vice-chairmanship of a parliamentary committee. Inevitably, there will be dissatisfied people.
With inflation soaring, the political contest will be at the heart of the Standing Committee on Finance this fall, and it will be interesting to see who Mr. Poilievre will choose to succeed him and face Minister Chrystia Freeland. The designation of this dolphin, at the dawn of a recession, will not be easy, because it is with him (or her) that the leader will share the stage.
Mr. Poilievre will also have delicate situations to resolve. Ed Fast was very critical of him, as was Alain Rayes, who said of him that “he feeds division and spawns with extremes”. Moreover, everyone knows that Michelle Rempel Garner, who supported Patrick Brown, defends her own political program. However, these three deputies enjoy media visibility which they could use, whether their new leader shuns them or not.
Staff positions
Pierre Poilievre is known to be his own political adviser and his own head of communications. But a leader cannot control everything, at the risk of getting lost in micromanagement. He will need a person respected both for his political talent and for his irreproachable daily handling of files as chief of staff. This person will also have to give the chef the correct time. If his chief of staff is judged to be inexperienced, it may be thought that the conservative chief does not know how to surround himself; if he has a lot of experience, his background could displease some members of the caucus.
The position of director of communications within the chief’s office is also very important. Mr. Poilievre has a reputation for not being kind to members of the Parliamentary Gallery. This person will have to deal with burnt-out journalists. It will be interesting to see what format his first press conferences will take. How many questions will there be and on what topics? How will the conference be facilitated? Mr. Poilievre has very powerful social networks. It will be necessary to assess how it distributes its communications between the traditional media and its own channels.
Conservative leaders often have a special adviser for Quebec. Martin Bélanger, who worked for 16 years behind the scenes of the Conservatives before leaving politics this summer, has served in this capacity under various leaders. It is not known if this function will be renewed.
Ultimately, Poilievre will have to decide whether to replace key people in party leadership and Conservative fund governance. This party leader occupies a strategic position. He is responsible for the preparation and operational implementation of the next election campaign. It is clear that the operational advantage the CCP enjoyed in the past in database and voter identification is no longer.