PODCAST. War between Israel and Hamas: the hope and the threat

While the hope of a second truce is diminishing, the declarations of the belligerents are raising the stakes and there is still uncertainty about what happens next.

As always in these cases, there are versions, impact and victims. Thursday, February 29, before daybreak, more than a hundred Palestinians died according to the Gazan Ministry of Health, victims of the chaos that has become chronic in this war. These Gazans were killed in a huge crowd movement caused by the approach of 30 humanitarian aid trucks on the coastal road near Gaza City before daybreak. The Palestinians accuse the Israelis of having fired on this crowd. “There was real carnage, it was madness, it was shooting in all directionssays this Gazan who witnessed the disaster. “Some Gazans spent 24, even 48 hours on the beach, in the cold, waiting for these humanitarian aid trucks to arrive”affirms this witness, who estimates that there were between 20,000 and 25,000 people present at the time of the killing. “For five months, there has been nothing to eat in the north of Gaza. There were women, children, men who were there in the hope of having something to eat”he sighs.

The convoy was entrusted to private individuals. It was coordinated by the Israeli army, which acknowledges limited fire on the crowd, but which also compares the scene to that of the stampede in Mecca which left more than 700 dead. This disaster gives weight to countries calling for a ceasefire. France is among those who strongly condemn the disastrous state of humanitarian aid in Gaza.

“What is happening is indefensible and unjustifiable,” denounced Stéphane Séjourné on France Inter, Friday March 1. The Minister of Foreign Affairs says that “France will support the UN Secretary General’s proposal” Antonio Guterres who pleads for an independent investigation to identify responsibilities in this tragedy. “From the moment we could qualify these types of facts as war crimes, obviously the courts will have to rule”says Stéphane Séjourné.

In this case, the Israeli army is suspected of having sought to bypass the UN for humanitarian deliveries to the north of the enclave. For the past 15 days, the United Nations has stopped its convoys for security reasons, blocked by army restrictions.

Hope for a truce seems to be fading

The hope of a truce which had been entertained by American President Joe Biden on Monday February 26 seems to be fading. The catastrophe will undoubtedly raise the stakes at a time when positions seemed to have softened. “It seems that Hamas has scaled back its initial maximalist demands, in this case wanting a lasting truce, and then the total withdrawal of Israeli forcesexplains Daniel Rigoulet-Roze, researcher at the French Institute of Strategic Analysis, guest on France Culture mornings, Tuesday February 27. And on the Israeli side it seems, which demanded the release of all the hostages at once, also a modulated demand. So it’s taking shape but you have to be very careful.”

But if the United States hopes to reduce pressure with this possible truce, the Israeli Prime Minister only sees it as a parenthesis. In English, On CBS, Benyamin Netanyahu imposes his agenda. The military operation on Rafah remains the final objective despite the humanitarian risk.

“A situation of chaos”

The risk of a military operation in an area with a very high population density is taken very seriously. The Egyptians are suspected of having built a secure camp for Palestinians crossing the border. But this reserve is undersized and the enclave is generally in ruins. “The bombings throughout Gaza and in Rafah in particular destroyed up to 70% of homes, these are figures that we had not even seen during the Second World Warbelieves Alain Gresh, founder of the magazine East 21. So we are in a situation of chaos.”

“There are a million refugees in Rafah who come from other parts of Gaza and we don’t see how to evacuate them. Evacuate them where? Elsewhere, there is still fighting and the Israeli army will not let them return to their Hometown.”

Alain Gresh, founder of the magazine “Orient 21”

On Friday March 1, more than 110 people died according to Hamas during a food aid distribution in Gaza. If the circumstances must be clarified, the Israeli army admitted to having opened fire.

The order of magnitude is becoming abysmal and we don’t know where it will stop. The Hamas Ministry of Health announced Thursday February 29 that the conflict with Israel, which began on October 7, had “more than 30,000” dead in Gaza. Two thirds are civilian victims, with a significant number of women and children. On October 7, nearly 1,200 Israelis were executed by Hamas.

At the end of the episode, Ines Abdel Razek, director general of the Palestinian Institute for Public Diplomacy in Ramallah, gives us her analysis of the conflict.

In this episode: Daniel Rigoulet-Roze, Alain Gresh, Ines Abdel Razek
Director: Etienne Monin, Chérif Bitelmaldji and Pauline Pennanec’h