Emmanuel Macron does not rule out dissolving the National Assembly to provoke new legislative elections if the debates on pension reform do not succeed and a motion of censure is voted against the government, franceinfo learned Thursday, September 29 from of participants in the working dinner of the presidential majority organized at the Élysée on Wednesday evening.
>> “If a motion of censure is voted, I will dissolve in the minute”: behind the scenes of the dinner at the Elysée around the pensions
The hypothesis of the dissolution was confirmed by the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt, Thursday morning: “If all the oppositions coalesced to adopt a motion of censure and bring down the government, Emmanuel Macron would defer to the French and the French would decide and say what is the new majority they want.”
At the end of this meeting between the ministers concerned by the pension file and the leaders of the components of the majority, the Prime Minister announced the launch, as of next week, of a new consultation on the future reform, while A day of mobilization is scheduled for Thursday at the call of several unions.
This new consultation, with the political parties and with the social partners, will be carried out on the basis of Emmanuel Macron’s electoral campaign promises, namely the raising of the retirement age to 65 in 2031. Discussions will thus relate to the end of special regimes, the minimum pension of 1,000 euros or the question of long careers or arduous work. “We cannot reform the country without the unions“, justifies to franceinfo a parliamentarian close to Emmanuel Macron. While another is annoyed: “Nobody will change their mind, the reform has already been concerted without ever finding a compromise”.
According to the participants in this meeting, a consensus was reached for the text to be voted on before the end of the year by parliamentarians, with a view to coming into force in the summer of 2023. “No Dissonant Voices” was not heard, according to one of the participants.
On the method, Emmanuel Macron has not really decided. It is however this famous method which has set fire to the powder these last two weeks in the majority. The Head of State walks on eggshells, torn between the supporters of an ultra-rapid reform, and those – like François Bayrou, the boss of the Modem – who are worried about a forced transition. According to several participants at the dinner, the preferred hypothesis since Wednesday evening is rather that of a specific law on pensions, debated at the end of the year in December, for a vote in early 2023. Several advantages to this strategy: first , it satisfies the camp of Emmanuel Macron, then it allows to keep the calendar: entry into force of the pension reform next summer.
But the risk is that this pension law will be rejected. And in this case, the government would be forced to draw the famous 49.3: an adoption without a vote, but incurring its responsibility. If by chance a motion of censure were adopted and overthrew the government, Emmanuel Macron therefore did not rule out dissolving the National Assembly, provoking new legislative elections. A red rag waved by the Head of State: a threat to the opposition tempted by an alliance of circumstance, but also for his camp which only has a very relative majority in the Assembly.