In Colombia, “total peace” may not be for tomorrow.
Three days after President Gustavo Petro announced a ceasefire, the country’s largest guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), this week denied any form of agreement, plunging the country in confusion and political crisis.
“It’s a mess that no one understands very well”, sums up political scientist Yann Basset, from the University of Rosario in Bogotá, surprised by the “hasty” declaration of the Head of State.
According to the expert, this communication error could “damage” the peace negotiations undertaken in the fall between the two parties, which were just starting to discuss again after a two-year break.
A problematic style
On December 31, at 10:45 p.m., President Gustavo Petro announced on Twitter a six-month “bilateral” ceasefire with the five main Colombian armed groups, including the ELN. In the aftermath, the UN, the Catholic Church and human rights organizations publicly rejoiced at this diplomatic advance.
But the presidential announcement will be contradicted 72 hours later by the ELN, which claims to have accepted no truce or even “discussed any proposal for a bilateral ceasefire with the government”. Faintness.
The leader has since remained silent on social media, while the government tries to limit the damage, even being forced to officially “suspend” a truce that was not one.
PHOTO RAUL ARBOLEDA, FRANCE-PRESSE AGENCY
The Colombian Ministers of Interior (centre) and Defense (right) hold a press conference with the High Commissioner for Peace (left) to announce the suspension of the ceasefire between Bogotá and the National Liberation Army (ELN), Wednesday.
The right-wing opposition is exploiting the crisis, accusing the government of Gustavo Petro, the first left-wing president in Colombia’s history, of improvising and putting Colombians “in danger” with “lies”.
Yann Basset notes that Petro, ex-mayor of Bogotá (2012-2015) and former guerrilla moreover (with the M-19, from 1977 to 1990), is not at his first “eager” then “denied” announcements .
“It’s a common thing with him. »
But he is surprised that the Head of State has acted so lightly in this case, given that he has made “total peace” one of the priorities of his mandate, with the ambition of an end to a six-decade conflict that has left around 450,000 dead and 8 million displaced in Colombia.
“His style is problematic because it creates expectations that are then not met,” says Mr. Basset. But here is something serious. This is undoubtedly the biggest mistake that the new president has made since taking office. »
Difficult to negotiate
This setback comes as the two parties resumed with fanfare at the end of November in Caracas negotiations suspended two years ago by the former conservative government of Iván Duque (2018-2022).
Some believe that the “mess up” of Gustavo Petro could change the balance of power for the rest of the discussions, scheduled for the end of January in Mexico.
Yann Basset, on the other hand, doubts that the talks will be called into question. “There is a very clear opening for these agreements,” he said. The actors are all very aware that the context will probably never be so favourable”, due, in particular, to the political inclinations and the revolutionary past of Mr. Petro.
PHOTO LEONARDO FERNANDEZ VILORIA, REUTERS ARCHIVES
National Liberation Army (ELN) commander Pablo Beltran at a press conference on the peace talks in Caracas on December 12.
Unlike the many criminal organizations active in Colombia, the National Liberation Army has ideological origins, having been founded in 1964 by priests who wanted to liberate the country through Marxism.
It is not as powerful as the FARC in its day (which has become a legitimate political party since the 2016 peace accords), but remains the largest armed group in the country, numbering between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters, according to estimates. Because of its horizontal structure and because it is made up of a multitude of small groups with diverse interests, this nebula however makes negotiations particularly complicated.
The “ceasefire” announced by President Petro concerned, in addition to the ELN, the two main factions of the FARC dissidence (the Segunda Marquetalia and the central staff), the AGC (Gaitanist self-defense militias de Colombia, far-right paramilitaries) and the Clan del Golfo, the largest gang of drug traffickers in the country.
With Agence France-Presse