A by-election less than six months after a general election is rarely a significant test for political parties. But the March 13 election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne is not so much a test for the government as, above all, for the opposition parties.
All observers agree that it is a two-way race between the Liberal Party of Quebec and Quebec solidaire. For once, the party in power is not in the race and the result of this partial will not involve any judgment on the government of the Coalition avenir Québec.
But, that said, what is most remarkable in this partial is the indifference that seems to show the political parties. Three of the five are using a candidate who was defeated in the last election in another constituency, while another chose a young party official. In short, there is only one of the candidates who has links with Saint-Henri-Saint-Anne…
The CAQ sent the signal of its disinterest from the start. It introduces the president of the party’s youth wing, Victor Pelletier, who had no connection with the riding and who is the very example of what is called a “post” in political jargon: someone who has no chance of winning.
Speaking of posts, it’s only in the last few days that we’ve finally seen a bit of display showing the candidate Pelletier, the party having preferred to line the constituency with posters of François Legault, promising reductions in tax this year. It is true that, historically, the CAQ has never exceeded the 20% mark in this riding.
The Parti Québécois has long had pretensions in this riding; we even delegated a star, the Dr Réjean Thomas, in 1994, and the latter had gone to 641 votes to win.
But since then, the share of the PQ has constantly decreased to only account for 8% of the vote in the last election. This time, we present the former candidate in Laval-des-Rapides, Andréanne Fiola, who will have to campaign without her leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon having decided that a European tour was more important than door-to-door. in the southwest of Montreal.
The Conservative candidate is Lucien Koty, defeated in Verdun last October, and whose notoriety owes more to controversial statements about vaccines and his beliefs that NATO and the European Community are using Ukraine and led him to be in conflict with Russia.
This leaves a match to finish between the Liberal Party of Quebec and Quebec solidaire. And for the PLQ, it is an important test. The riding has always voted Liberal since its creation in 1994 and the Liberals have featured stars like Marguerite Blais and her leader, Dominique Anglade.
But recruiting was not easy. The PLQ finally fell back on Christopher Baenninger, the president of a marketing and communication agency, who was the lamb sacrificed against the entrenched Manon Massé in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques in the October election. last.
Normally, the profile of the candidate should be interesting for a riding like Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne: it is a neighborhood that is gentrifying at high speed and that has neighborhoods like Griffintown that attracts young professionals like the Liberal candidate . The largest age group is made up of voters between the ages of 30 and 39. And the average age in the constituency is under 40.
In addition, the constituency has a third of English-speaking voters, traditionally a loyal clientele of the Liberal Party. And like everywhere in the English-speaking community, Bill 96 does not pass and the Liberals hope that this will mobilize English-speakers to go to the polls.
In short, it should be a relatively comfortable victory for a Liberal candidate. However, it is not. On the ground, we see very little of the liberal presence, as if the gloom that followed the results of the last election had not yet faded.
In Québec solidaire, the choice of the candidate was never in doubt. Immigration lawyer Guillaume Cliche-Rivard came within 2,800 votes of surprising and beating Liberal leader Dominique Anglade in the general election.
He mainly campaigns on the themes of exclusion and the housing crisis, but he is also the only candidate who can count on solid support from his party, the other supportive MPs being very present to help him become the 12e member of their caucus. This would give them the status of a recognized party without having to beg for privileges and would erase a little the disappointing result of October.
As in all by-elections, participation will be decisive. Hoping that voters will be more interested than the political parties themselves.