After a spring marked by a first heat wave and violent storms that left their mark, MétéoMédia warned a few days ago that Quebec should experience “a unique, unstable and sticky summer”, with temperatures “above normal” and a high potential for severe thunderstorms. Clear signals that the impacts of the climate crisis are taking root and that we must adapt to them well beyond the simple response to emergencies.
“There is no specialist who is surprised to see so many heat waves, or to see heat waves or violent thunderstorms in May. And there will be more heat waves from May, which will become more intense. But what worries me the most is that it announces heat waves in summer which will be quite spectacular and deadly. We saw it last year in British Columbia”, summarizes the director general of the consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change, Alain Bourque.
He adds that the impacts of global warming, which is twice as fast in southern Quebec as the global average, will be felt more and more over the coming decades, even assuming that we respect “the most optimistic scenarios” for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. “When we talk about reducing emissions, it’s to succeed in stabilizing the climate when we reach carbon neutrality. So we are talking about beyond 2050. But until then, there will continue to be upward trends in all kinds of extreme weather events and higher temperatures. »
A point of view shared by Taha Ouarda, expert in hydrometeorology at the National Institute for Scientific Research. “Extreme events will increase, but also their intensity, duration and frequency. All the models demonstrate this to us and it may complicate things. For example, heat waves where temperatures exceed 30°C will be more frequent, so we could have several a year, and instead of lasting three days, they could last seven days. »
From an annual average of 3 days above 32°C a decade ago, it could rise to more than 20 days by 2040, and then to almost 50 days before the end of the century, according to the data. from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ). And episodes of extreme heat are already causing deaths, underlines Céline Campagna, scientific adviser at the INSPQ. In 2020, 149 people died as a result of heat waves and researchers noted excess deaths of 16% to 42% for three of these waves, in Montreal and Laval. “It’s huge and we can fear greater excess mortality in the years to come”, drops Mme Campaigned.
The risks associated with extreme climatic phenomena are all the more worrying in that they could occur simultaneously. “If we have a mega-heat wave in Montreal, with temperatures over 40°C, and at the same time, we have violent thunderstorms further north, or even tornadoes that would tear down Hydro-Québec poles, that could mean that Montreal would lose its air conditioning,” illustrates Alain Bourque.
Hydro-Québec also says it is investing more and more to minimize the risks that vegetation represents for its network, in addition to evaluating more resistant materials for its distribution poles. “However, in reference to the outage of May 21, the force of the winds was such that mature trees were completely uprooted. In places, Category 1 hurricane force winds struck. Under these conditions, it is very difficult to protect a distribution network,” specifies the state-owned company.
Prevention instead of cure
But beyond the need to better respond to the consequences of unavoidable events such as heat waves, floods or storms, the experts consulted by The duty insist on the urgency of better adapting to a warmer climate, due to decades of climate inaction and dependence on fossil fuels.
“You can’t play ostrich, and yet, unlike COVID-19, heat problems are not seen as an emergency. It’s hard to explain why we have to act now to save lives later,” laments Céline Campagna. “In public health, we are worried and we are preparing. But I do not believe that the health network is ready. And we are not ready when it comes to land use planning, in particular because action should be taken to make cities cooler. We cannot use technology to refresh everyone. Cities must therefore be cool for the entire population. »
In a report published at the beginning of March, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change precisely insisted on the need for greening of urban areas. By reducing the place of concrete and asphalt to make more room for green spaces, “we reduce the elements that amplify exposure to risks”, summarizes Alain Bourque. This type of measure is all the more essential in the event of heat waves, the citizens of the poorest neighborhoods, those who suffer from mental health problems and the elderly are the most vulnerable.
If he says he sees an “awareness” on the part of the Quebec authorities in relation to the needs to adapt to climate change, Taha Ouarda believes that the implementation must be accelerated. “It’s not going fast enough and we risk being surprised,” he warns. It should be noted that if the current climate trend continues, the average rise in temperatures for southern Quebec will reach +3.5°C, or even 4°C over the next few decades. And in the event of failure on the part of the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement, the rise in mercury for the regions which include the bulk of the Quebec population risks exceeding +5.2°C.
The Legault government already recognizes that adaptation risks being expensive. In April, as part of the 2022-2027 implementation program for its Plan for a Green Economy, it announced investments of $437 million to “strengthen resilience”. However, this represents just over 5% of the $7.6 billion provided for in the climate plan.
Adaptation funds include $113 million devoted primarily to “greening” cities to combat heat islands and provide protection from “more intense and more frequent heavy rainfall events.” Other investments will notably be used to analyze health risks, assess the resilience of public infrastructure and support businesses to adapt. As for the federal government, it promised to implement the first national adaptation strategy by the end of the year.