I’ve been interested in politics for decades and I confess to being a little taken aback. At the end of a campaign where he shone and where he was, according to many, the best of the five leaders, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) still only garners 15% of the voting intentions. It is certainly a significant gain if we compare this 15% to the 9% that the PQ received at the start of the campaign, a gain that could allow it to save some ridings, including its own. But we are still far from a trend that could allow him to be the leader of the opposition as he wishes, and above all far from support that reflects the state of the sovereigntist forces. According to a Léger poll last June, at least 32% of Quebecers would still be in favor of this option.
How then to explain that support for the PQ is still vegetating at such a low level? There is certainly the presence of Quebec solidaire which claims to be sovereignist even if the subject is almost never broached by its candidates and, of course, there is the nationalist trompe-l’oeil game of François Legault and the CAQ . Remember, because this is essential data, that it was to drive out the Liberal Party of Philippe Couillard that several sovereignists took refuge at the CAQ in 2018. And the bet was successful.
Some may have also believed, naively, that François Legault had hidden intentions in matters of independence. This idea still filled the conversations not so long ago. However, François Legault was more than clear on this subject: he is a federalist and he is for good. This all-out federalism is precisely the reason why the CAQ won’t get anything from the federal government. Because without the threat of sovereignty, no gain for Quebec is possible. History is rich in lessons on this subject.
Brian Mulroney would never have started the Meech talks at the end of the 1980s and proposed to recognize Quebec as a distinct society without the formidable force represented by the more than 40% of Quebecers who, from election to election, expressed their rejection of federalism by voting for the PQ. The increased powers in areas of shared jurisdiction such as immigration and labor would not have been granted to Quebec either without a favorable balance of power for the latter. These are parts of Quebec’s history that sovereigntists should bear in mind when going to vote. As they would have to take into account the even more serious risks that would arise from the death of the PQ.
A slow agony
The greatest of these risks is obviously to see Quebec sink into a slow agony where the “Montrealization” of the language problem would spread to all of Quebec. In this Quebec in disarray, French would gradually lose its status as a common language and language of use after having lost its function as the language of work and the language of culture. Young millennials give us a taste of what awaits us. The GAFAM, these giants of the Web which we did not talk about enough during the campaign, have made them insatiable consumers of American culture and they tend more and more to use English to communicate.
To turn the tide, it would be necessary at least to repatriate all the powers in immigration and culture. But why would an increasingly centralizing federal government (which meddles more and more with provincial jurisdictions such as health and education) agree to cede powers to a province that weighs less and less heavily in the ” confederation” and who no longer represents any threat to the unity of the country?
Another major existential risk: the environment. Even if Quebec adopts the best GHG reduction plan and puts all its energies into achieving lofty objectives, it will always remain dependent on Canadian environmental policies, a country that relies on sustained growth in oil production to ensure its economic growth. No matter what the Liberals in Ottawa say…
An ever-living hope
Sovereignists should bear these two existential questions in mind before putting their cross on their ballot. In addition to this other fundamental consideration: Canada as it is today cannot be reformed, and it is not the federalist François Legault or any other federalist who will change this reality. The 1982 constitution that Pierre Trudeau wanted to see last 1000 years is indeed likely to last a millennium as the requirements to modify it are high. Would we just want to get rid of the monarchy as the vast majority of Quebecers want that we would be unable to do so. We would need the consent of the Canadian parliament, the senate and the legislatures of all the provinces. Unachievable.
In 2018, the sovereignists wanted to get rid of one of the most federalist Quebec governments since the beginnings of the Quiet Revolution. It was done. But today, the situation is quite different. Every sovereigntist vote that will benefit the CAQ in 2022 will only add to the democratic imbalance afflicting Quebec politics, when less than 40% of the votes will allow a party to win around 80% of the seats or more.
And in this unequal National Assembly, the sovereignist movement risks being considerably under-represented. Recall that François Legault had promised in 2018 to change the voting system, but that he did nothing. Will the sovereignists continue to reward him and use their vote not only against their historic cause, but also to the detriment of the democratic health of Quebec?
As PPSP said so well in the last debate, it is time for the separatists to return to the fold. It is an existential question. Because soon, the time will run out to tackle the real challenges of Quebec. This year we celebrate René Lévesque’s hundredth birthday. Now is not the time to turn our backs on the party he founded and which still remains in 2022 the best hope of profoundly changing Quebec politics.