President Putin’s ego will have been hurt. He hid his intentions, assembled an ill-equipped potpourri of special units, new recruits from Siberia and Chechens to embark on an ill-conceived and disorderly invasion that resulted in casualties and loss of life. important equipment. He has greatly underestimated the reactions of Ukrainians and the West, and is unable to control the consequences of his actions.
The Russian military context
The 2008 war in Georgia exposed major Russian military shortcomings. The decision was made to modernize the Russian army, whose acquisitions doubled between 2008 and 2019 to reach 250 billion US dollars, almost three times the military acquisition budget of France or England.
It is quite possible that the Russian experience in Crimea, Syria and the Donbass made the authorities think that the invasion of Ukraine would be a matter of days. However, the reality was quite different.
Given the problems of the Red Army in Ukraine, which have exposed serious material defects, it is legitimate to ask whether there can be an army that remains intact on the fringes of a corrupt and coercive political regime.
Added to this are no less serious logistical failures. Tanks out of gas or convoys of tanks piled up on the same road continued to be deployed in an almost suicidal way. The use of unguided aerial bombardments from low altitude and Russian communication problems made them more vulnerable: several Russian generals were spotted and shot down. The attack on kyiv was disastrous, and Russia tries to somehow consolidate its hold on southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian naval losses in the Black Sea are hampering the capture of Odessa, which would deprive Ukraine of an essential port for its exports.
It would take a whole generation to restore the image of the Red Army. Recourse to the bombing of civilian targets, including hospitals, and even to massacres (Boutcha), is a measure which has had the counter-effect of uniting the Ukrainians and welding together the democratic countries, encouraged to come to the aid of Ukraine and to unite with NATO. Many countries feel threatened by the possibility of Russia anchoring itself in Ukraine with impunity.
The Ukrainian military context
Although the Ukrainian army was trained on the model of the Russian army, its experience in Iraq and Afghanistan prepared it for a decentralized command hierarchy. The neighboring countries, former members of the Warsaw Pact, are sending equipment and ammunition in support of the Ukrainian army, equipped with the same type of armament.
Ukraine has major logistical challenges. Its cellular communication network was spared, because, on the one hand, the Russian army used it due to its faulty communications, and, on the other hand, Internet access is provided by Starlink satellite terminals , courtesy of Elon Musk.
Corruption does not spare Ukraine, which is ranked 122and rank by Transparency International, while Russia is ranked 136and rank. Nevertheless, the motivation of the Ukrainians to make their country survive, against the lack of motivation of the Russian troops, often unaware of the reason for their presence in Ukraine, completely changes the situation.
The reaction of democracies
A feeling of horror shook the planet at the catastrophe for humanity and the damage that accompanies the invasion of Ukraine. Relief was brought to millions of refugees, and defensive weapons sent in large quantities.
Europe rearmed massively and closed ranks around the United States, which became the arsenal of democracies, just as during the Second World War. The integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO is only a matter of time.
In addition, we are beginning to see the effect of economic sanctions against Russia: freezing of bank reserves, restrictions imposed on products and people – including the oligarchs. The effect of the brain drain from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine will be felt in the medium term. Moscow’s economic power is largely based on the sale of hydrocarbons: 45% of natural gas and 25% of oil in the European Union are purchased from Russia, for the equivalent of one billion a day. The Russian economy is currently benefiting from the rise in the price of Brent, but many countries are looking for supplies or alternatives, a transition that will not be easy.
How to end the conflict?
The objectives of the countries assisting Ukraine are not well defined. Will they depend on developments on the ground? Do they coincide with those of Ukraine, which would not accept any territorial cession? Is there a possible compromise with Putin?
At present, there appears to be a protracted conflict looming with no formal peace on the horizon. Russia will not want to cede the Donbass, and it is possible that a demarcation line separates the belligerents, just as it did for North Korea and South Korea, without Ukraine joining to NATO.
NATO will aim to deter Russia from another invasion while freeing itself from dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Several years will pass before confidence is restored between the countries of the West and Russia. It will be incumbent on these Western countries to ensure that Russia is sensitive to the benefits of accountable and reliable democracy, failing which it risks being governed by a leader far more radical than Putin.
Putin is nostalgic for the days of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was a formidable superpower. He maneuvered to consolidate Russia in the image of the Soviet empire. He inherits a new cold war, certainly, but with a considerably weakened Russia.