This is the story of a banker, a police chief and a child ombudsman… In this Ontario election campaign, three candidates with disparate backgrounds are fighting to become MNAs for Don Valley West, a riding Toronto steeped in history. And for the first time in 20 years, the field is clear: the current holder of the seat, former Liberal Prime Minister Kathleen Wynne, is not seeking a new mandate.
The Liberals think that Stephanie Bowman, a former member of the board of directors of the Bank of Canada, can take the lead. The Progressive Conservatives are betting on former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders, while the NDP is betting that Irwin Elman — who was Ontario’s Child Advocate until the job was eliminated by the government Ford in 2018 — will come out on top.
For a long time, Kathleen Wynne was unbeatable in Don Valley West. In 2007, she even defeated – with 50% of the vote – former Progressive Conservative leader John Tory, a feat that marked the first defeat for an Ontario party leader in his own riding in 17 years. But 11 years later, the Liberal leader is 181 votes away from getting the same trick. Nothing is therefore won for the Liberals in their former stronghold.
Because if Mark Saunders was “parachuted” into this Toronto riding, it’s because the Progressive Conservative Party thinks he has a chance to perform well given the close result of 2018, thinks Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto. The police chief is “ministerable”, he believes.
By nominating the former Queen City police chief, Camp Ford wants to signal that it is betting on law and order, analyzes for its part the professor emeritus Myer Siemiatycki, of the Metropolitan University of Toronto (formerly known as Ryerson University). The latter warns, however, that the riding has all the ingredients to elect a Liberal: it is located in Toronto, where Doug Ford is less popular than his opponents, its residents are rather wealthy and their values, progressive.
“Demographically and philosophically, this riding leans in favor of the liberals,” also thinks political scientist Wiseman.
Choose your vision of politics
In the streets of the constituency, during the second day of the campaign, the blue signs of Mark Saunders are numerous. And outside a neighborhood LCBO store, Jane (who prefers to keep her last name quiet since she calls herself a conservative in a liberal tide) says she’ll give him her vote. “I don’t want the public health requirements to come back after the election,” she explains.
Mark Saunders, Toronto’s first black police chief, has made few media appearances since stepping down in 2020 after weeks of anti-racism protests. Several interview requests from To have to were left unanswered; the newspaper therefore visited him at his campaign office, where the candidate spoke with his team, then offered to organize a subsequent interview. A subsequent email was left unanswered.
A few blocks away, sitting in his campaign office, New Democrat Irwin Elman warns his side that he is talkative.
Yes, he supports the NDP platform, he makes sure to specify, but the former children’s advocate prefers to philosophize on the big changes he wants to see in Ontario politics. “People are fed up with transactional politics,” he says. Irwin Elman’s Ontario would prioritize the well-being of Ontarians, not financial results and small political victories. The NDP hasn’t formed a government for almost 30 years in Ontario: is it because of this way of thinking? “It’s hard to change,” Mr. Elman responds through tape. But he is betting that the residents will choose his vision.
Outside a mall in the riding, Tom Scanlan explains that he is behind the NDP candidate. “It broke my heart that they eliminated his position [de Protecteur des enfants] », Laments the Torontonian who is very critical of the Ford government.
Transport, health and education
Several voters admitted not having followed the election (“I’ll watch this now that you ask me the question!” launched one of them). Eugene Lockyer, on the other hand, is one of those who have already decided. And if he has the same grievances as Mr. Scanlan, he will nevertheless support the Liberals. Building Highway 413 in the city’s suburbs, a flagship Progressive Conservative project the Liberals oppose, isn’t necessary, he says. And, closer to home, he also believes that the voters of Don Valley West were not consulted enough by the province as part of the Toronto Metro Ontario Line project.
Either way, since October, Liberal candidate Stephanie Bowman says she mostly hears about the Ford government’s education cuts and health inequities when she knocks on doors in the riding.
She also says she’s aware of the high stakes in Don Valley West — she’s trying to take over from a former premier, after all. “I focus on the needs of voters,” says the former banker. ” I think that [Stephanie] will have a good political organization to support it, ”says former Toronto mayor John Sewell, who has known Kathleen Wynne since the 1990s.
Election forecasting site 338Canada calls it “likely,” but not assured, a Liberal victory in the riding. NDP candidate Irwin Elman, meanwhile, believes the NDP is well positioned to win this race — and form the next government. To do so, the party will have to keep the 40 seats it had in the Legislative Assembly before its dissolution, and then win 23 more. “If we are going to form the next government, we will have to win ridings like Don Valley West,” he notes.
This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.