Among all federal elected officials from Quebec, only two backbench MPs from Justin Trudeau’s Liberals still do not wish to confirm their intention to run for another mandate in the next election.
They are Brenda Shanahan (Châteauguay — Lacolle, in Montérégie) and Yves Robillard (Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, in Laval). The first dodged questions from Dutywhile the second says he has not yet made his decision.
Montreal Liberal Emmanuel Dubourg (Bourassa) will be absent from the Liberal ranks during the next election, having already publicly declared that he will not run again. Independent MP Alain Rayes (Richmond — Arthabaska), elected under the Conservative banner, will not seek a new mandate either.
The duty surveyed all Quebec federal deputies to find out their intentions for the next elections, which must be held no later than fall 2025.
73 of the 77 elected officials — or 95% of them — say they intend to run again, like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau), who tirelessly repeats that he will be in the next electoral contest.
Radio silence
This is not the case for Brenda Shanahan, who did not respond to emails or calls from Duty. Confronted in person at the exit of parliamentary committees in Ottawa, she simply replied: “no comment”.
Mme Shanahan narrowly won in the Châteauguay — Lacolle riding after a judicial recount. Only 12 votes separated her from the Bloc candidate, Patrick O’Hara. She was first elected to Ottawa in 2015, serves as chair of the Liberal caucus, but has never been a minister.
Contacted by The duty, the constituency office of MP Yves Robillard said it had not yet made its decision. The elected official for the Marc-Aurèle-Fortin constituency, which borders the Mille Îles River, north of Laval, was elected for the first time in 2015. He has never been a minister.
Liberal MP Anna Gainey (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce — Westmount), the last Quebecer elected to Ottawa, following a by-election in June 2023, initially refused to respond. Her office, however, sent confirmation that she was also running in the next election.
For their part, all the Quebec ministers in the Trudeau cabinet will run for a future mandate.
Each of the 32 Bloc Québécois MPs will seek a new mandate, says the party. Same thing for the nine Conservative MPs from Quebec, and the only NDP MP in Quebec, Alexandre Boulerice.
Quebec has 78 ridings, but one is vacant. This is LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, in Montreal, since the departure of the former Minister of Justice, David Lametti. The Prime Minister has until July 30 to announce the by-election for this seat.
Almost all in the race
The next federal general elections must be held no later than October 2025. They could, however, be called before, either at the initiative of the Prime Minister, or if the opposition parties come together to make the minority government lose the confidence of bedroom.
The third mandate of the Trudeau government, also the second in a minority situation, is characterized by an unusual agreement with the third opposition party, the New Democratic Party (NDP), “of support and confidence”. This agreement gives the Liberal government some stability until Parliament adjourns in June 2025, if it so wishes.
Justin Trudeau repeats his intention to run for a fourth term as leader of the Liberal Party, despite his party’s slide in the polls. According to the poll aggregation site Canada338, the Conservatives currently garner 43% of the popular vote across the country, far ahead of the Liberals (25%) and the NDP (17%).
In a statement, the Liberal Party of Canada said it was ready “to re-elect its Quebec Liberal team to the House of Commons and to elect even more talented and passionate community leaders from all walks of life as new Liberal MPs.”
Currently, half of the Liberal elected officials in place in Quebec (17 out of 34) have already been officially invested in their constituency, including ministers Mélanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville), Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier), Francois-Philippe Champagne (Saint -Maurice — Champlain), Steven Guilbeault (Laurier — Sainte-Marie) and Jean-Yves Duclos (Québec).