Political tensions are escalating as discussions about the 2025 state budget unfold. The Socialist Party’s cancellation of a meeting with the government complicates negotiations just ahead of a crucial joint committee meeting. Prime Minister François Bayrou aims to secure a compromise budget that satisfies both left and right opposition while addressing the public deficit. Key concessions have been made, including the preservation of teaching positions and avoiding new household taxes, as the government seeks broader support amid criticism and ongoing challenges.
Political Maneuvering Surrounds the 2025 State Budget
The ministers responsible for the budget engaged in crucial political discussions on Tuesday in relation to the state budget for 2025. However, the cancellation of a meeting with the government by the Socialist Party (PS) has complicated the path toward a compromise just two days ahead of a significant reconciliation meeting between deputies and senators.
In a last-ditch effort, Mr. Lombard and his colleague in Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, are working diligently to craft the “compromise” budget that Prime Minister François Bayrou desires, aiming to avoid the fate of his predecessor, who faced censure on December 4.
The primary objective is to offer sufficient assurances to both left and right opposition parties while also aligning with the expectations of the common base, given the absence of a majority in the National Assembly. According to the government, the budget text approved by the Senate lacks the necessary flexibility, despite fulfilling the requirement to reduce the public deficit.
Efforts and Challenges in Negotiations
The government faces significant challenges as it navigates this complex situation. Following the Prime Minister’s controversial comments about “migratory submersion,” the Socialist Party announced its decision to cancel a scheduled meeting with the government aimed at reaching an agreement prior to the joint committee (CMP), which consists of seven deputies and seven senators and is tasked with formulating a compromise text on Thursday.
François Bayrou reiterated his stance on “migratory submersion” in Mayotte and several other French regions. His remarks, made on Monday evening, have sparked outrage among leftist factions amid ongoing negotiations with the socialists regarding a non-censure motion. Socialist deputy Laurent Baumel stated, “What occurred this afternoon does not contribute to a non-censure agreement,” during a press briefing.
In a bid to secure support from various parties, Economy Minister Eric Lombard met with representatives from the communist party and the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, led by Eric Coquerel, on Tuesday morning in Bercy. Bayrou confirmed several concessions on Monday, particularly aimed at the socialists, whose backing is crucial for the government’s stability, especially after they expressed dissatisfaction following recent consultations.
Key concessions include the abandonment of the proposed elimination of 4,000 teaching positions, a demand made by the PS, and assurances to the right and center regarding the absence of new taxes on households. However, the government plans to seek contributions from high-income earners and large corporations.
The head of government also rejected the Senate’s proposal for seven hours of unpaid work as part of the Social Security budget, which had been a point of contention for both socialists and some members of the Macronist faction.
These concessions come as discussions resume regarding the Social Security accounts (PLFSS), leading up to a crucial CMP meeting scheduled for Thursday.
As Eric Lombard stated on Tuesday, “The moment is serious because we have a democratic appointment that may or may not yield a budget.”
During the CMP, Lombard suggested that “there may be moving sliders” concerning budget cuts and revenue adjustments, underscoring his “responsibility” to ensure the common text leads to a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP, as targeted by the government.
The potential outcomes of the CMP will be reviewed on Monday in the National Assembly, before the examination of the PLFSS begins. François Bayrou may invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing the text to be adopted without a vote, which could provoke another motion of censure from the Unsubmissives.
The Senate is expected to finalize its stance on the state budget by February 7. During a press conference, Finance Committee President Eric Coquerel raised concerns that the budget could emerge even more “austerity-oriented.” Communist deputy Nicolas Sansu remarked, “I don’t believe the situation is any more palatable today than it was on December 4 with Barnier.”