Quebec will not have as many experienced workers to help it counter the scarcity of labor as we think, warns a study. And convincing them to stay a little longer in the labor market will not be so simple either.
The demographic shock and the problem of labor shortages were often discussed during the last Quebec election campaign. Several political parties have notably put forward that Quebec could improve its lot by getting older workers to delay their retirement or return to work with the right mix of tax benefits and other financial incentives. But it’s going a little fast in business, reports the Institut du Québec (IdQ) in a study unveiled Thursday.
At first glance, Quebec could make significant gains quickly. From 2011 to 2021, the number of Quebecers aged 60 to 69 jumped by more than 250,000 people with the arrival of the first baby boomers. However, barely 39% of people in this age group were still active in the labor market at the time, compared to an average of 42.4% in OECD countries, a proportion of 46.3% in Ontario and more. 51% in countries like Norway and Sweden.
“In reality, the aging of the population is already well advanced in Quebec. Many baby boomers have already left the labor market, explained in a press release the director general of the IdQ and one of the co-authors of the study, Emna Braham. However, fewer and fewer people are approaching retirement age. So much so that the pool from which we hoped to be able to draw yesterday has dried up considerably over time. »
The total number of Quebecers aged 60 to 69 should therefore already have decreased by almost 105,000 in about ten years. This means that even if Quebec manages to catch up all of its current lag behind Ontario, the potential number of additional workers it could count on will quickly fall by more than half, from 86,000 people last year to 37,000 in 2032. .
Realism
This does not mean that there is no progress to be made on this side, only that it will be necessary to be more “realistic”, explained in a telephone interview to the To have to the other co-author of the study and principal economist at IdQ, Simon Savard.
We can already rejoice in noting that the activity rate of Quebecers has been on the rise for the past twenty years thanks in particular to the increase in their level of education, the improvement in the quality of jobs and the increase in the activity rate of women in all age groups. Other factors are also at work, such as less generous pension plans and the increase in household debt.
The good news is that Quebec should thus be able to continue to count on a certain “natural increase” in this area. But to do even better, it will take a lot of effort and patience, because the decision of when to retire is made a long time in advance, and more than three-quarters (78%) of Quebecers aged 45 and more are currently planning to leave the labor market at age 65 or younger, according to a recent study by the Institut de Statistique du Québec.
As with daycare
Nor should we look for a “magic solution” that would involve, for example, financial incentives. Existing measures, such as the tax credit for career extension, are both too narrow and too costly, in addition to not having really shown their effectiveness. “By definition, notes the IdQ, many people who have chosen to leave the labor market to retire do so by accepting that this choice will result in a drop in income. »
Rather, it would be necessary to develop a “range of tools adapted to [la] complex and multifaceted reality” of retirement. This will have to go through vocational training, not only for young people, but also for older workers. Flexibility measures, working time arrangements and support in career planning would also be necessary on the part of employers.
Particular attention should be paid to women, whose participation rate is only 32% when they are aged 60 to 69, compared to 46% for men. If only women aged 60 to 64 caught up, Quebec could already count on 49,000 more people in the labor market.
As, at this age, many more women take on the role of caregiver, Quebec should also invest more in care for the elderly, says the IdQ. “In the same way that child care services have enabled young women to re-enter the workforce and pursue their careers, elder care could enable older women to pursue their careers or to better reconcile their careers with their family responsibilities. »