Has Germany decided to go it alone in Europe? The question runs through the minds of the European partners of the most populous country of the European Union. It must be said that between a cooling of Franco-German relations, a support plan of 200 billion euros for the country’s economy, presented without warning, and a disagreement on the response to be given to the energy crisis, the dissensions piled up for months. Time is running out, however, as inflation gallops and energy prices continue to soar in Europe.
What is happening across the Rhine? Part of the answer can be found in one man, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who came to power a year ago. The 64-year-old social democrat, busier managing the internal quarrels of his ruling coalition (which brings together social democrats, environmentalists and liberals), has seemed to turn away from European issues over the past few months.
To understand the political choices of the German Chancellor, we must first look at his personality. Unot “bit boring but pragmatic”as written ReleaseOlaf Scholz is anchored to the centre-left. “He has this cliché of the North German, very discreet, which sticks to his skin”, emphasizes Jacob Ross, researcher at the German Council for International Relations (DGAP). “He won an election that he had not dominated at all, where he remained in the background. It’s a strategy that worked and that he kept once in the chancellery.” As proof, the rarity of his speeches in Germany, “which are often reproached to him”completes this specialist in Franco-German relations.
Discreet, the former mayor of Hamburg is nevertheless a seasoned politician. “He is very aware of the political mechanisms and knows how to manage his influence, but it is not noticeable from the outside”, says Eileen Keller, researcher at the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg (DFI). And if Germany seemed absent from major meetings, it is because German politics monopolizes the Chancellor. “He has to manage a government with three parties that don’t agree on everything, it’s a unique situation”explains Eileen Keller.
Above all, the organization of the German political system slows down the action of the head of government. “While in France the president is all-powerful over foreign affairs, the German chancellor must work with the Bundestag [la chambre des députés allemands]which must be consulted on European issues, and negotiate with its coalition”, details Jacob Ross. Not easy, therefore, to react quickly to unexpected events, such as the war in Ukraine or soaring gas prices.
“You still have to see that Germany is going through a questioning of its energy, economic and defense model”, deciphers Marie Krpata, researcher at the Study Committee for Franco-German Relations (Cerfa). Faced with the war in Ukraine, the German government was forced to review its dependence on Russian gas, to fly to the rescue of its economy and to invest massively in its army (100 billion euros). Radical transformations for a country accustomed to prudent political choices.
The crises that are going through Europe have even pushed the chancellor, accustomed to consensus, to take decisions unilaterally. “For example, he alone took the decision to extend the life of the country’s last three nuclear power plants”, emphasizes Eileen Keller. But his choices are not always well perceived. “He wanted to let a Chinese company buy the port of Hamburg, against the advice of the government and the secret services”she recalls. After intense controversy, the Chinese company Cosco was finally only allowed to take 25% of the shares it was aiming for and will therefore not be in the majority, as reported Le Figaro.
Olaf Scholz, on the other hand, dragged his feet to settle certain European questions. From there to see a lack of interest vis-à-vis the policy of the EU? “It’s hard to imagine, as he knows these subjects well”tempers Marie Krpata, who recalls that the former Minister of Finance “dealed with Bruno Le Maire and worked on the post-Covid-19 European recovery plan”. “He knows these subjects very well.abounds Jacob Ross. You have to remember that the government contract is very pro-European.”
So, should we see in the action of the German government a desire to pass “Germany first”as claimed Politico ? Part of the answer lies in the violence of the crisis that is rocking the country.
“There is no lack of love for Europe, but a purchasing power crisis, with inflation approaching 10% [seuil qui a même été franchi outre-Rhin en octobre]. The 200 billion euro plan responds to the concrete problems of the population, it is normal that he thinks about it first.
Jacob Ross, researcher at the German Council for International Relationsat franceinfo
Awakened by the war in Ukraine, Germany had to reinvent its geopolitical strategy, based on change through trade. “There has been a form of awkwardness on this subject, where Germany feels strong enough to decide on its own”concedes Eileen Keller.
The refreshing of relations between France and Germany can moreover be interpreted at the height of Olaf Scholz’s priorities for Europe. The German Chancellor expressed his vision for the future of the EU in Prague (Czech Republic) on August 29, as recalled The Great Continent. “The intervention was not coordinated with France, which he did not even mention”recalls Jacob Ross.
“The message of his portrait speech on the importance of enlarging Europe, adds Eileen Keller. And in a Europe that is moving towards the East, the Franco-German relationship no longer has the same role.” Priorities that brought the historian Jacques-Pierre Gougeon to conclude in The world than Germany “relativized its relationship with France”. Result : “The Franco-German relationship is looking for a new reason to exist”analyzes Jacob Ross. “For young people, the concept of reconciliation that founded these relationships is very abstract”adds the specialist, even if, as Eileen Keller explains, “some areas of cooperation such as twinning still work very well”.
Still, for many European political actors, the Franco-German engine is still essential. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, for example, affirmed on France Inter on October 24 that “the relationship between France and Germany is very important for the European Union”. The lack of coordination with its neighbors has also been criticized even in Germany. The German government, which does not turn a deaf ear to criticism, seems to want to pick up the pieces, especially with France. “The fact that the French president is ringing the alarm bell has had an echo in Germany, emphasizes Eileen Keller. There was a realization that we shouldn’t have done things like that”, adds the researcher.
As proof, the organization of a lunch with Emmanuel Macron on October 26, after the announcement of the postponement of a Franco-German Council of Ministers the previous week. The exchanges were there “very constructive”, according to the Elysee. A much-needed discussion, while the Twenty-Seven must urgently agree on a mechanism to curb soaring energy prices.