(London) Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, driven by market fears of supply disruptions due to tensions in the Middle East, but remained tempered by concerns about demand, particularly from China.
Around 5:20 a.m., the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in March, gained 0.68%, to $79.64.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in February, gained 0.86%, to $74.22.
“Markets are reacting to rising tensions in the Middle East, where the consequences of the conflict […] threaten to envelop the entire region and block the Red Sea route, widely used by oil tankers,” comments Ricardo Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades.
In the fourth month of the war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas, the risks of a regionalization of the conflict are increasing with daily exchanges of fire on the Israeli-Lebanese border, the multiplication of attacks by Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and the intensification American strikes in Yemen.
Early Friday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for firing on an American oil tanker, the Chem Rangerin the Gulf of Aden, the latest attack by this Iran-backed group against merchant ships in “solidarity” with Gaza.
However, the absence of crude supply disruptions at the moment is capping the gains of the two global benchmarks.
The rise in oil prices also remains “limited by persistent fears of an economic slowdown in China, the world’s largest importer of crude,” continues Mr. Evangelista.
Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its latest monthly report on the oil market on Thursday, eagerly awaited by investors.
Global oil supply is expected to reach a record high in 2024, barring major disruptions in the Middle East, while a slowdown in demand growth is expected, the IEA estimated.
At the same time, global oil demand is expected to see its growth slow significantly in 2024, driven by economic difficulties, but also by progress in energy efficiency and the rise in the number of electric vehicles around the world. according to the Agency.
“The IEA and OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Editor’s note) continue to diverge considerably in their assessments of the oil market,” notes Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.
According to OPEC’s monthly report published on Wednesday, oil demand is set to experience “robust growth” in 2025, towards a new record, despite calls from climate experts to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.
According to Mr. Fritsch, “the evolution of oil prices suggests that the IEA’s forecasts are considered much more realistic by the market.”