Oil up despite jump in stocks and US inflation

(New York) Oil prices recorded a gain on Wednesday, the threat of an escalation between Iran and Israel outweighing the jump in American crude stocks and the acceleration of inflation in the United States.


The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in June increased 1.18%, to close at $90.48.

A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in May, gained 1.14%, to $86.21.

Black gold prices initially fell into the red after the publication of the weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories swelled by 5.8 million barrels during the week ended April 5, much more than the 800,000 barrels expected by analysts, according to a consensus established by the Bloomberg agency. .

This increase is explained, firstly, by the slight slowdown in the activity of American refineries, as well as by the fall in exports (-32% over one week), to the lowest level in eight months.

The EIA also noted a decline in the volumes of refined products delivered to the American market (-9.6%), considered an indicator of demand in the United States. Gasoline volumes notably decreased by 6.7% over one week.

“The increase (in stocks) was much greater than expected, but geopolitics is capable of taking over,” commented Stewart Glickman of CFRA, for whom “the news concerning Iran and Israel fuels concerns. »

On Wednesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated threats of reprisals against Israel, after the strike which destroyed an annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus (Syria) in early April.

Meanwhile, the London-based Arabic-language news site Elaph, citing “a Western security source,” reported that Israel was currently carrying out preparation maneuvers for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and other infrastructure in the Islamic republic. .

“Israel versus Hamas worried people less than Israel versus Iran,” says Stewart Glickman.

The geopolitical premium also had the upper hand over the acceleration of inflation in the United States, illustrated by the CPI price index, published on Wednesday. The latter increased by 3.5% year-on-year in March, compared to 3.2% the previous month.

This jump is, in large part, attributable to the surge in energy prices, which increased by 1.5% over one month, compared to 0.4% for the overall index.

“3.5% is not enough for the Fed (American central bank) to say that it was not heavy enough and to start raising rates,” according to Stewart Glickman, for whom this This figure therefore does not change the situation for monetary policy.


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