(London) Oil prices climbed on Friday, after the publication the day before of a slight decline in American inflation, which supports expectations of a reduction in American rates, and therefore a weakening of the dollar.
Around 5:15 a.m., the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in May, which is the first day of use as a reference contract, rose by 1.44% to $83.11.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in April, rose 1.47% to $79.41.
In the United States, “the disinflation process is following its course in a reassuring manner and bets are currently being placed on a rate cut in June”, likely to weaken the dollar, points out Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.
Since oil is traded in dollars, a weak greenback traditionally supports oil demand because it strengthens the purchasing power of buyers with foreign currencies.
On Thursday, PCE inflation, an index scrutinized by the Federal Reserve (Fed), appeared to fall slightly to 2.4% year-on-year in January, compared to 2.6% in December, in line with market expectations. Over one month, however, the price increase accelerated, to 0.3% compared to 0.1%.
This figure remains close to that targeted by the monetary institution, which wishes to reduce inflation to 2%.
“Further encouragement came from this side of the Atlantic, in the form of an easing of pressure on consumer prices in Germany, Spain and France,” adds Tamas Varga, predicting declines rates from other issuing institutes, such as the European Central Bank (ECB).
Furthermore, “oil prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and the reduction in supply from OPEC+” (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies), notes Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank.
Investors were waiting to find out if the voluntary restrictions of certain alliance countries, in force in the first quarter of 2024, will be extended.
“Maintaining voluntary production reductions until the end of the year would be a strong signal and should therefore be considered positive for prices,” according to the Commerzbank analyst, for whom a decision is likely to be taken the first week of March.
“On the other hand, an extension only in the second quarter would probably already be taken into account in the prices and should therefore not cause prices to change significantly,” he believes.