(New York) Oil prices ended higher on Friday after the declines of the past few days, torn between concerns for the supply of black gold and fears of a recession that could approach.
Posted at 3:31 p.m.
A barrel of Brent North Sea oil for August delivery climbed 2.78% to $113.12.
The barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery the same month, gained 3.21% to 107.62 dollars.
“Prices move according to two arguments: either we fear that there is too little supply to satisfy growing economies, or we fear that we will face a reduction in demand when the world may fall into recession. because of commodity price inflation and high interest rates,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.
In a context of increasingly aggressive action by central banks to fight inflation by raising their key rates, and ever more disappointing economic indicators, the economic outlook is worrying, said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.
“The demand for petroleum products would fall in the event of a recession,” explains Ole R. Hvalbye, analyst at Seb. “Current astronomical refinery margins would collapse and a key bullish factor for Brent would evaporate. »
“Having said that, the consensus remains that the oil market will experience high demand and tight supply during the summer months,” Tamas Varga said.
Weighing in favor of higher prices on Friday, strikes in Ecuador are reducing the country’s oil production, Andy Lipow also noted.
In the United States, President Joe Biden’s initiative to scrap a three-month federal tax of 18 cents on a gallon of gasoline to lower prices at the pump seems destined to fizzle.
“The idea doesn’t have Republican support, and a number of Democrats don’t support it either. It could be that the initiative does not even manage to be put to the vote”, underlined the analyst of Lipow Oil Associates.
“What the market seems to think is that it’s not going to happen,” he added.