The Ukrainian crisis could trigger significant international sanctions. One of them would be not to activate the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which represents a major financial windfall for Russia.
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Faced with the crisis in Ukraine, the threat brandished in the event of an attack not to activate the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany, “will have no impact on Russia”, estimated on franceinfo Friday January 28 Thierry Bros, energy specialist and professor at Sciences Po Paris. The United States announced yesterday that Nord Stream 2 “will not go ahead” if Russia invades Ukraine, Germany for its part says it is thinking about strong sanctions, including concerning the gas pipeline.
Gas certainly represents a significant financial windfall for Russia: “If you do very rough calculations, the European Union sends Russia some 6 billion dollars a month for its gas bill”, believes Thierry Bros. But Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipeline “to bypass Ukraine, not bring us much more gas”, analyzes the energy specialist. Especially since with gas prices which broke record levels in the 4th quarter of 2021, “The Russians have made enough money to have fully paid North Stream. So even though it is not in operation, it has already been paid off by the gas crisis.”
For Thierry Bros, it is therefore essential, beyond this threat, that Europeans reduce their dependence on Russian gas. France has two advantages: “to have minimum stock levels in these gas stocks” but also to lead “a policy of diversifying its gas supplies”which means that “we are not more than 30% dependent on Russians.” But at the same time, some EU countries are completely dependent on Russian gas, the EU itself is 40% and Germany 50%, according to Thierry Bros: “We are in a situation where, as we are too dependent, we cannot act and defend ourselves in a completely free way.”