We can never stress enough how ephemeral politics is. At this time last year, Premier Legault was walking on cloud nine. “If I’m in politics, it’s for days like today,” he said.
Flanked by his “friend” Justin Trudeau and his “super-minister” of Economy and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, he had just announced with great fanfare “the largest manufacturing investment in the history of Quebec”, which would propel him to the forefront of the battery industry.
Twelve months later, Mr. Fitzgibbon has left the ship for reasons that have convinced no one, his vision of economic development is openly questioned by the president of Hydro-Québec and the Northvolt project, which was intended to be his great feat of arms, is dangerously floundering.
Only the relationship with Mr. Trudeau does not change: it continues to alternate between bitterness and sweet words. The former has taken over recently, but Mr. Legault being condemned to find virtues in federalism, he never sulks for very long.
Quebecers have long understood that the Prime Minister’s outbursts against Ottawa are of no consequence. The shelving of the Northvolt project for an indefinite period is more worrisome. This historic investment, for which all the rules were broken, should not become the flop of the century and the dream turn into a nightmare.
Officially, it is simply a pause imposed by a temporary bad economic situation, but doubts have been sown and the government currently has no way of dispelling them. Northvolt’s management itself does not seem to know what its future holds. If the parent company is in danger, the fate of a factory that has not yet been built becomes quite secondary.
The Liberals, who have been furious for years about having their label of “party of the economy” stolen by the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), quickly understood that this was an opportunity not to be missed to tarnish the image of the party in power.
The Swedish battery maker’s troubles have added weight to claims by Michael Sabia that the government has unduly favored foreign players, the largest of which is Northvolt, by granting them electricity blocks to the detriment of local companies.
It is understandable that the government cannot withdraw the 354 megawatts that it has committed to allocate to it before knowing whether the project will be carried out or not, but it clearly did not foresee an expiry date for this commitment. It is also unable to confirm whether the additional 1,500 megawatts that Pierre Fitzgibbon had promised to make available to businesses by 2027 will be forthcoming.
The population may recognize that Christian Dubé is doing everything possible to straighten out the health network, but it has few illusions about his ability to succeed where all his predecessors have failed for decades. It is also too used to seeing the public education network deteriorate year after year to think that Bernard Drainville, who denies the existence of a “three-speed” school, is going to change anything. It is no longer the broken promises that surprise, but rather those that are kept.
Failing to manage the state better than those who preceded it, many nevertheless believed that the CAQ government could make Quebec progress economically. After all, Mr. Legault is the first entrepreneur to lead it. He may repeat that education is his top priority, but everyone knows that the economy was his obsession.
The indicators he can point to to show that the wealth gap with Ontario is narrowing don’t mean much to ordinary people, who don’t see much difference in their daily lives.
On the other hand, a project like Northvolt gave the impression that Quebec was entering a new era. Its failure would have a catastrophic effect and could make us forget all the progress that has been made elsewhere. The environmental devastation it has caused would only seem more scandalous.
It must be acknowledged that Pierre Fitzgibbon did not hesitate to give the truth, even if it was not necessarily to the advantage of his government. For example, by saying that the energy transition would eventually impose an increase in electricity prices well above 3%.
Before leaving, he said that we would have to be lucky if the Northvolt project restarted before two years. In two years, Quebec will be in the middle of an election campaign. And if the uncertainty persists, the CAQ will find itself in the middle of a nightmare.