At the dawn of the sixth wave of COVID-19 in Quebec, the federal government is preparing for two possible avenues regarding the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. However, no scenario foresees the end of the spread of the virus “in the foreseeable future. »
“Yes, we know that the virus and the pandemic, at least the circulation of the virus here in Canada and around the world, will continue for a long time. [Ces] two scenarios are always [conformes] with the idea that the virus stays with us,” says Dr. Howard Njoo, Deputy Chief Federal Public Health Officer
At the end of a week in which Quebec experienced an increase of almost 35% in cases, the federal public health modeling presented on Friday did not advance to make numerical predictions as to the expected evolution of the pandemic. Some estimates presented in previous waves have proven to be erroneous. Instead, Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) officials outlined two forms the COVID-19 pandemic could take in Canada.
According to a “probable” scenario, federal public health expects waves of spikes in cases to continue to hit the country, as new variants emerge or immunity wanes. It would be possible to expect such waves as early as this spring, then in the fall and next winter. According to this prediction, transmission of the virus would continue at a “low to moderate” rate for the months and years to come.
A “worst-case scenario”, also assessed as “less likely but still possible”, is also being studied by PHAC: the emergence of a worrying new variant that escapes internal immunity and causes more severe disease. According to Dr Njoo, a return to the most drastic public health measures is only to be expected if such a scenario arises.
“I think with the more optimistic scenario, it’s possible to manage the situation, maybe not to have restrictions like before. But as Dr. Boileau said in Quebec, all the options are on the table if we [se retrouve avec] worst-case scenario,” he warns.
The federal government thus indicates that it is preparing for the eventuality of the discovery of such a variant which would completely escape the immunity conferred by vaccines, for example, and which would cause more serious consequences on health.
BA.2 Variant Augment
Authorities are seeing a steady rise in the Omicron sub-variant, called BA.2, since January in the country. This variant would be more contagious than Omicron (called BA.1), but would not cause more risk of hospitalization and would benefit from equivalent protection from vaccines.
“In Quebec, what I see is that the resurgence of BA.2 is greater in the regions less affected by the wave before, of BA.1 [Omicron]. It may be possible that a BA.1 infection gives some protection, some immunity, against the BA.2 variant for a while,” says Dr. Njoo. He indicates that this immunity “does not last a lifetime”, but rather estimates it at “a few months”. According to experts consulted by The duty reinfection with BA.2 is indeed possible.
The sixth wave, formalized in Quebec, would not have yet arrived everywhere in Canada, since the pandemic takes different forms from one region to another of the country, it is indicated. For example, surveillance of the virus in sewers in the city of Ottawa suggests a significant increase in cases in the federal capital, while the same observation in Saskatchewan suggests a drop in cases.
“We can expect more ups and downs in the months ahead,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam warned. She asks the public to exercise caution during upcoming religious holidays, such as Easter and Ramadan.
Data available to federal public health indicate that even today, fully vaccinated people have a four times lower risk of hospitalization than people who are not vaccinated. The risk is even lower among those who received a booster dose, ten times less than those who were not vaccinated, the data show.