Justin Trudeau must have been relieved to see that the conservative wave in Quebec, surfing on the desire for freedom of the supporters of Éric Duhaime, finally swept over no Quebec riding. But the nationalist wind has, on the other hand, inflated the support of the Coalition avenir Québec, allowing it to increase its majority and thus offering François Legault the argument he was hoping for to raise his voice against Ottawa.
The leader of the CAQ became the seventh premier of a province, in as many elections, to win a majority after a battled ballot during or after the pandemic. To date, only Justin Trudeau has failed to do the same at the federal level, last fall.
Despite polls that predicted some tight battles for the Coalition avenir Québec in the national capital region, faced with a now competitive Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ), Éric Duhaime’s support was not enough or simply not materialized.
Of the 31 ridings where the PCQ came second in the voting intentions projected by the polling aggregation site Quebec125, the party rose to this rank in 21 of them as well as in Mégantic. Of this number, 17 of the ridings are already represented by the Conservative Party of Canada at the federal level — in Quebec City and its surrounding regions, from La Pocatière and Montmagny, in Côte-du-Sud, to central Quebec in Beauce and in Arthabaska.
Everywhere else — on the south shore and the north shore of Montreal, on the West Island, in the Eastern Townships, in Trois-Rivières — the PCQ fell to fourth or fifth place in the votes. expressed. It is only in Mauricie, Saint-Hyacinthe or Bécancour (Liberal or Bloc Québécois regions, federally) that the Conservatives of Éric Duhaime have collected more than 15% of the voting intentions. But even with these supports, they arrived far behind the CAQ winner.
This pool of new voters, recruited by the PCQ and who also had the potential to swell the ranks of the federal Conservative Party of Pierre Poilievre against the Liberals of Justin Trudeau, remained mainly confined to the regions already won over to the PCC.
An inflated majority ignored?
In the medium term, however, Justin Trudeau will have to deal with a CAQ government that believes its autonomist demands are legitimized by its enhanced majority.
François Legault reiterated on Monday evening that his “greatest duty” as prime minister remained to protect French, in particular through better immigration control. A priority repeated in a press briefing on Tuesday. “I think the strength of our majority helps us, 41% [des votes exprimés] “, he argued.
Mr. Legault pleaded last spring that the size of his majority would tie the hands of Justin Trudeau, in the negotiations between Quebec and Ottawa. The federal prime minister did not seem to share his reading. He was already retorting that Quebec has more powers in immigration than its provincial counterparts and that Mr. Legault had not demonstrated, other than politically, that he really needed to have more.
The speech was the same Tuesday, in the Federal Parliament. “Quebec currently has all the tools in hand to choose the vast majority of its immigrants,” reiterated Mr. Trudeau’s Quebec lieutenant, Minister Pablo Rodriguez.
On the requested increase in health transfers, the required end of the flow of migrants to Roxham Road or the greater control hoped for over the reception of newcomers, Mr. Rodriguez promised each time to sit down with Quebec and discuss . But beyond that, openness to François Legault’s demands did not seem to have budged, between a majority government of 74 seats and 37% support garnered in 2018 and that of 90 seats and 41% support won on Monday. .
What’s more, by congratulating François Legault and saying he was “eager to continue working” with him in a statement Monday evening, Mr. Trudeau took the liberty of targeting a few priority issues: labor shortages, affordable housing , infrastructure, climate change and green economy. Nothing to appease the reproaches of the Quebec Prime Minister, who accuses his federal counterpart of being too centralizing on each occasion. “He still qualifies what he wants to talk about,” mocked a longtime Quebec political observer.
A common electorate
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals may well dismiss out of hand the support of 41% of Quebec voters for the nationalist momentum of the CAQ – “all the provinces” are becoming autonomous against Ottawa, retorts in particular the Minister of Crown Relations -Aboriginals, Marc Miller -, remains that nearly a third of this electorate having endorsed the autonomist speech of François Legault supports the Liberal Party of Canada at the federal level. A minority, Justin Trudeau will not be able to completely ignore them, predict Quebec political actors in Ottawa.
Especially since the CAQ is not alone. The National Assembly unanimously adopted some forty motions calling on the federal government to change or respect jurisdictions during Mr. Legault’s first term. It risks adopting at least a few more to summon the Trudeau government to better control the arrival of migrants at Roxham Road or to finally renegotiate with the provinces the size of federal health transfers.
Justin Trudeau will not take offense to these unanimous motions any more than his predecessors. Nor will he suddenly agree to concede to François Legault’s demands. But the communicating vessels between his electorate and that of the CAQ risk forcing him to lend an ear nevertheless.
The electoral weight of Ontario or the threats of “sovereignty” of Alberta may also monopolize the attention of the Canadian Prime Minister, but he will not be able to ignore the nationalist sentiment which has convinced a part of his electors, at the federal level, to endorse the aims of the CAQ and to offer it a tidal wave, at the provincial level.