Michel Barnier’s government in France collapsed on December 4, 2024, after Parliament passed a motion of censure with 331 votes. Triggered by the National Rally’s support for the censure and the government’s controversial use of Article 49.3 on the social security budget, this event marks the second-ever successful censure in French history. As the shortest-serving Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic, Barnier is expected to resign imminently, while President Macron prepares to address the nation.
The Fall of Michel Barnier’s Government
The political landscape in France has shifted dramatically as the government led by Michel Barnier has officially collapsed on Wednesday, December 4, 2024. The Parliament executed a motion of censure, garnering 331 votes in favor, which resulted in the dismissal of the Prime Minister who was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron on September 5, following the dissolution of the National Assembly and subsequent early legislative elections.
This upheaval was primarily triggered by the National Rally’s declaration that they would support a censure vote if a compromise on the budget could not be reached. The situation escalated after the government invoked Article 49.3 concerning the social security budget, which holds the government accountable. Consequently, the New Popular Front proposed the censure vote on December 2, 2024. After a series of speeches, the vote culminated in the historic adoption of the motion, marking a significant event not seen since 1962. Unlike the previous instance when Prime Minister Georges Pompidou remained in his position, the fate of Michel Barnier now hangs in the balance.
What Lies Ahead for the Barnier Administration?
This unprecedented moment has led to the second-ever motion of censure being adopted in French history, resulting in the downfall of Michel Barnier’s administration. Experts are expressing concerns regarding a potential “regime crisis.” Mathilde Panot, the representative of La France Insoumise (LFI), swiftly called for Emmanuel Macron’s resignation and for early presidential elections, though such a scenario appears unlikely.
As the Prime Minister with the shortest tenure in the Fifth Republic, Michel Barnier is now tasked with submitting his resignation to the President. Following the vote’s announcement, Barnier promptly headed to Matignon, potentially foregoing any delay unlike Georges Pompidou did in the past. It is anticipated that he will tender his resignation either tonight or by tomorrow at the latest. Emmanuel Macron, having just returned from a trip to Saudi Arabia, is expected to address the situation shortly after the results.
Once Barnier resigns, it is expected that Emmanuel Macron will accept the resignation without reappointing him, unlike General de Gaulle’s approach with Pompidou. In the past, deputies opposed the president’s election through universal suffrage, but a referendum shortly after the first motion of censure saw French citizens voting in favor. Currently, Macron lacks the option of a referendum to retain Barnier and must quickly appoint a new Prime Minister. He is scheduled to address the nation on December 5, 2024, at 8 PM.
It is important to note that a motion of censure must be filed within twenty-four hours of the adoption of any text under Article 49.3 to nullify it. This was confirmed by Yaël Braun-Pivet, the President of the National Assembly, during the announcement of the censure vote pertaining to the budget. Given that the vote process typically spans around 70 days, it appears highly improbable to complete this before the end of December 2024. A special law is likely to be introduced, pending a fresh vote in early 2025.