Russia on Tuesday claimed the “success” of its recent offensive in eastern Ukraine, as kyiv expects a major Russian attack and demands that the West increase and accelerate its military aid .
The Ukrainian authorities believe that Moscow is preparing a new assault around February 24, the anniversary date of the campaign ordered by Vladimir Putin, but which saw the Russian army fail to take kyiv in the spring and have to retreat to the east. and the south in the fall.
Since January, the Russian army, supported by the paramilitaries of the Wagner group and reinforced by hundreds of thousands of civilians mobilized since September, has returned to the offensive, in particular in the Donbass, the eastern region of which Moscow claims responsibility. ‘annexation.
“Currently, the fighting is progressing successfully in the areas” of Bakhmout and Vougledar, said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to a statement issued after a meeting with army and military officials. his ministry.
“Unpredictable escalation”
He cited the recent conquests of seven localities including Soledar, a small town near Bakhmout that the Ukrainian forces ceded in January after deadly fighting for both sides.
Mr Shoigu also warned the West against increasing its military aid to Ukraine, which he said could “lead to an unpredictable level of escalation” in the conflict.
“Such measures draw NATO countries into the conflict and can lead to an unpredictable level of escalation,” he said.
Observers agree in predicting that Russia is preparing a major offensive at the end of winter or at the beginning of spring, with the minimum objective of conquering all of Donbass, which it only partially controls.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukrainian governor of the Donetsk region where Bakhmout is located, admitted that the situation was becoming very difficult in Bakhmout, in an interview published on Tuesday by Radio Svoboda.
If he assures that “the maximum is done to prevent” the fall of the city, he however added that the Ukrainian soldiers “will not be used as cannon fodder” to hold the city at all costs.
On Saturday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the situation was “complicating” on the front, especially in Bakhmout, which the Ukrainian army has been defending since the summer.
The capture of this city would open the way to a Russian offensive towards Kramatorsk, the main city of Donbass under Ukrainian control.
Some 150 kilometers further south, Moscow is also on the offensive on Vougledar, near a railway junction serving the east and the occupied south of the country.
In the north of Donbass, the Russians are also pressing their adversary, in an area reconquered by kyiv in September.
“Not much ammo”
Sergey Solomon, a 31-year-old Ukrainian construction worker turned soldier, confirms that kyiv’s forces risk being outgunned by those in Moscow.
“The Russians have tanks, armored personnel carriers, Grad (rockets), everything you can imagine,” he says. “We have equipment, but not a lot of ammunition.”
Faced with pressing demands from kyiv for months and after procrastinating for a long time for fear of provoking an escalation, Americans and Europeans recently decided to send dozens of heavy tanks so that Ukraine could better oppose a Russian offensive and organize his own.
However, their number remains below kyiv’s expectations. And Westerners continue to refuse to deliver combat aircraft.
The United States, on the other hand, promised weapons with a range of up to 150 km, which kyiv demanded in order to be able to strike far behind the front at Russian ammunition depots and supply lines. However, the delivery schedule remains unclear.
Ukraine lacks men and ammunition to face the Russian army, which has the advantage of numbers. It therefore needs more modern and more precise armaments to compensate for its deficit.