Contrary to the predictions of several reputable sources, the midterm elections in the United States did not produce a “red wave” favoring the Republican Party. On the contrary, the Democratic Party retains control of the Senate, and even if the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, the margin will be very small. President Joe Biden is doing quite well.
It seems clear that inflation was the determining factor in favor of the Republican vote. However, we also note that the judgment of the Supreme Court handed down last June, which restricts the provisions on access to abortion established by the judgment Roe v. wade of 1973, undeniably motivated the Democratic vote. In addition, late-campaign speeches by President Biden and former President Barack Obama on challenges and threats to American democracy also had the effect of mobilizing voters for that party.
It seems that these elements have particularly encouraged women and young people to go to the polls.
It is the best performance by a president in his first midterm elections since George W. Bush in 2002, despite an approval rating of less than 45% for President Biden.
These mid-term elections also produced significant results in terms of the diversity of elected officials. The number of women (as governors) and people from cultural communities who have been elected has never been greater. Note the election of a 25-year-old representative in the State of Florida, the Democrat Maxwell Frost, who becomes the first American elected from Generation Z, as well as the election of the first African-American governor of Maryland. , Democrat Wes Moore. These are good indications of the vitality of democracy in the United States.
Donald Trump, the big loser
Several of the Republican stars were recruited by former President Donald Trump for this election. They supported his thesis concerning the alleged theft of the 2020 presidential election and the illegitimacy of Joe Biden for the presidency.
However, many of these candidates have suffered defeat, particularly in two states deemed key for 2024, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where there was a Democratic sweep.
Additionally, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerges as the big winner in the November 8 election due to his decisive re-election and his performance with Latin Americans. The victory of this right-wing leader is beginning to wreak havoc on Republican unity.
Moreover, some conservative outlets, including Fox News, are already questioning the viability of Trump’s 2024 candidacy and promoting DeSantis’s. Several Republicans are beginning to dissociate themselves from his next campaign, including Mike Pence, his former vice-president. He has just published a book in which he denounces the behavior of Trump on January 6, 2021, alleging that his interventions have put him and his family in danger.
Admittedly, it is too early to write Donald Trump’s political obituary, but his return to the presidency in 2024 now appears much more complicated.
Prospects for the 2024 elections
The performance of the Democrats will have the effect of giving Joe Biden more leeway than expected during the second half of his term. Even if the House of Representatives passes into the hands of the Republicans, the current president should not be underestimated. Biden is a regular at political maneuvering in Congress.
The November 8 results also give him a little more time to let his intentions known for the 2024 presidential election. However, the majority of voters who voted in the midterm elections seem to want him to retire.
One thing is certain, the polarization and the division remain intact. Sequels are expected following the investigation into the events of January 6, 2021. Possibly charges by the Department of Justice against Trump. It is also predicted that nearly a quarter of congressional elected officials continue to view the 2020 election as illegitimate.
Many questions loom on the horizon. Will Governor Ron DeSantis run for the Republican nomination against Donald Trump? Will we see the emergence of an “election of change” with a new generation, without Biden or Trump?
We can predict that the question of American democracy will once again be on the political landscape by 2024. That said, the fact remains that for many Americans, the elections of November 8 demonstrated the importance of going to vote and the difference each vote can make. Undoubtedly, they witnessed the workings of their democracy.