Mexico | Hurricane Otis defies all odds

Without warning, like a thief, the hurricane Otis hit southwest Mexico overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday. In just a few hours, the tropical storm transformed into a Category 5 hurricane, defying the predictions of all experts. A phenomenon which is unfortunately set to increase due to climate change.

A tropical storm that becomes a “nightmare scenario”

During the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, Otis made landfall northwest of Acapulco, a popular destination for vacationers in Mexico. The hurricane was then classified as a Category 5 storm, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which determines the intensity of tropical cyclones. Less than 24 hours ago, Otis was only a tropical storm, however, with winds not exceeding 118 km/h. Late Tuesday (October 24), officials at the National Hurricane Center in the United States called Otis of “nightmare scenario” as the storm rapidly gained intensity towards the Mexican coast. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Otis went from tropical storm to category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours.

A balance sheet still uncertain

Mexican authorities had difficulty assessing the toll of the disaster on Wednesday, since communications were still cut with the Acapulco region. Note that the Federal Electricity Commission of Mexico had cut off electricity in Acapulco on Tuesday evening, as a preventive measure, in view of the arrival ofOtis. “So far we have no information on loss of life, but there are no communications,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said during his daily press conference. , Wednesday. “There are no plane flights. There are no buses between Mexico City and Acapulco,” noted an AFP photographer after the hurricane, which made landfall with gusts of up to 315 km/h, according to the Mexican government. The president mentioned “material damage”, evoking “collapses” along the highway leading to Acapulco, and assured that the government was trying to restore communications.

A record rise in power

To fully understand the extent of the progression ofOtisyou should know that the intensification of a hurricane is considered rapid when it gains 56 km/h in 24 hours. Otis gained 152 km/h in approximately 12 hours and 177 km/h over a 24 hour period. At the time of landfall, the hurricane was producing winds of 265 km/h. On the social network X, the National Hurricane Center increased updates Tuesday as the storm rapidly gained intensity. Only one hurricane gained strength faster thanOtis over a period of 24 hours, i.e. the hurricane Patricia in 2015. But the most recent storm takes the prize for the fastest increase in power over a 12-hour period.

A failure of forecasting models

“What was unanticipated in one of the largest and most consequential forecast model failures in recent years was the speed and magnitude of the intensification ofOtis and the speed with which it would make landfall – all of which led to an unprecedented disastrous situation,” wrote scientist Jeff Masters and journalist (and meteorologist) Bob Henson in a post published Wednesday on the University’s Climate Connections website. Yale. According to the two experts, the high surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, inflated by record temperatures in September in Mexico, and a corridor of intense winds explain the meteoric progression ofOtis. “Overall, forecasts of hurricane intensity – including rapid intensification – have improved in recent years. Cases like that ofOtis show that we still have a long way to go,” wrote American climatologist Tomer Burg on X

Study predicts intensification of hurricanes

A study published less than a week ago in the journal Scientific Reports concluded that hurricanes have intensified in the North Atlantic over the past 50 years due to climate change. The author of the study, American climatologist Andra Garner, estimates that hurricanes in the Atlantic are now twice as likely to go from a minor stage to a major hurricane. According to M^me Garner, this rapid intensification phenomenon has accelerated as ocean waters have warmed. Since the pre-industrial era, it should be remembered that the oceans have captured 90% of global warming caused by human activities. However, warmer oceans produce more moisture in the atmosphere, thus favoring the formation of more intense hurricanes.

With Agence France-Presse and the New Scientist