(New York) “Florida, Florida, Florida. »
On November 8, 2000, at the end of an epic election night, Tim Russert, journalist for the NBC channel, wrote these words on a whiteboard to communicate to viewers an unavoidable fact: the outcome of the presidential election will hold to a single state, where fewer than 600 votes separate the two main candidates, Democratic Vice President Al Gore and Republican Texas Governor George W. Bush.
Twenty-four years later, no journalist would dare predict that Florida will regain its status as the pivotal state par excellence in the short term. As Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi, who worked in this state for Barack Obama, the last presidential candidate of his party to triumph there, in 2008 and 2012, keeps repeating, the Sunshine State has become “the Mecca of MAGA”.
However, journalists will meet there again in large numbers between now and November 5, the date of the 2024 presidential election. And the Biden camp will even try to convince them that the Democratic president has a chance of reversing a trend started by Donald Trump in 2016 and continued by Ron DeSantis in 2022 (both Republicans saw their margins of victory in Florida increase during their re-elections).
How to explain the sudden interest of journalists in Florida and the feigned or real optimism of the Biden camp about the president’s chances in this state? The answer is in one word: abortion.
Monday 1er April, the Florida Supreme Court cleared the way for the state’s ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy starting April 1er may.
At the same time, Florida’s highest court gave the green light to hold a referendum on November 5 proposing to enshrine in the State Constitution a guarantee of the right to abortion until viability of the fetus, i.e. approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy.
This decision therefore ensures an important, even predominant, place in Florida for one of the Democrats’ main battlehorses. Donald Trump’s adopted state thus joins around ten American states, including the key states of Nevada and Arizona, which will hold or intend to hold referendums on abortion in November (in the case of Arizona, the referendum could overturn a draconian 1864 law validated last week by the State Supreme Court).
However, since the repeal of the judgment Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court of the United States in June 2022, the topic of abortion represents a political asset for Democrats.
The latter used it not only to invalidate the restrictions imposed by certain states, but also to mobilize their troops and unite independent or even Republican voters.
From there to saying that the referendum on abortion in Florida will help Joe Biden’s cause in this state, there is only one step that his electoral team did not hesitate to take.
“President Biden is in a stronger position in Florida [en 2024] than it was in 2020,” wrote Julie Chavez Rodriguez, director of Joe Biden’s campaign team, in a memo distributed to journalists.
And added: “Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable state for Biden. »
“More at stake,” says DeSantis
Ron DeSantis is one of the Republicans who finds Democrats’ optimism suspect or laughable. The governor maintains that Florida has experienced a true demographic and political revolution in recent years.
In fact, the state of Ron DeSantis, identified with resistance to “wokism” and health restrictions, has welcomed many Americans who left Democratic states like California, New York or Illinois to find refuge in a state whose governor defends values that correspond to theirs.
PHOTO PHIL SEARS, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida
Along with this internal migration, Democratic voters in Florida, including Latinos, have switched party affiliations.
Result: Florida today has 900,000 more voters registered as Republicans than voters registered as Democrats.
“Florida is no longer in play. It’s a Republican state,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said recently on Fox News.
Maybe. But it is undeniable that the issue of abortion does not work in favor of the Republicans. Those in Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio, among other red states, found out in referendums held since 2022.
This question bothers Donald Trump in particular. On April 8, the former president tried to neutralize it by asserting that it was up to the states to legislate on abortion. He thus disappointed some anti-abortion activists, who wanted to see him advocate a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. And he faced criticism from Democrats, who jumped at the opportunity to associate him with the most restrictive abortion measures in the United States, including in Arizona and Florida.
In November 2023, Donald Trump himself described the Florida law banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy as a “terrible thing”. Will he really be able to distance himself from it in the context of a referendum which could help Joe Biden create a surprise in the 2024 presidential election?
Do you have any questions or comments ? Write to Richard Hétu ([email protected]) and some of your messages could be found in our newsletter on the 2024 American elections, sent every Tuesday.