Showing up in the media, tackling substantive issues or preparing for the future: before a change of government team, the most threatened ministers deploy various techniques to keep their folding seats.
Tick-tock, tick-tock… For the members of Elisabeth Borne’s government, the relationship with time changed after the death of Nahel, killed by a policeman during a traffic check, and the riots which took place broke out in many cities in France, which forces them to review their agenda in the light of this news. But this news has hit an already particular political context, marked by rumors of a reshuffle which have intensified in recent weeks. Approaching July 14, the deadline for the 100-day period decreed at the end of April by Emmanuel Macron, the ministers who feel in the hot seat deploy different strategies, in the hope of remaining in government.
First of all, there is the rhetoric of claimed good students: asserting that one is “at his task”, “on records”Like nothing ever happened. “There is real continuity, no stopping, no paralysis. On the contrary, it intensifies”, dares the entourage of Jean-Christophe Combe, Minister of Solidarity, that many observers see on the departure. For him as for others, the moment is special: the Prime Minister must make a series of announcements at the beginning of July.
Cramming doesn’t work!
Some therefore take the opportunity to promote their files and put themselves forward to the one who will decide on the composition of the next government: Emmanuel Macron. The technique is not new. “In the last moments, I tried to negotiate a final trip with the President of the Republic to bring about arbitrations”remembers a secretary of state from the previous term. “There is human work to be done with the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic, because you have to please both”continues one of his colleagues at the time.
“Emmanuel Macron hates people who give up, he likes people who fight.”
A former ministerat franceinfo
Can this tactic pay off before the verdict falls? “I’m not sure that Emmanuel Macron necessarily likes to show up everywhere with him in the home stretch. Christophe Béchu has stuck to the president’s coattails lately, when his presence was not relevant for all trips “, whistles a ministerial adviser. One of his counterparts joins him: “When the Head of State decides to change a minister, it’s not because he hasn’t seen him enough in the last 15 days, it’s because during multiple meetings, we have seen that ‘he didn’t know his files, or that he had no idea… You know, cramming in politics is like everywhere: it doesn’t work!’
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Be careful, on the contrary, not to play the first of the government class too much, by excessively soliciting the Elysée and Matignon. “You have to measure your effort, otherwise it quickly becomes drunk”warns a former secretary of state. A ministerial adviser recognizes, however, that the imminence of the reshuffle encourages diplomacy towards the hierarchy: “We are more careful and we say no to Matignon much less easily.”
“Usually, we can stand up to arbitrations. There, we do it less, because we know that this is not the time.”
A ministerial adviserat franceinfo
Is carrying large projects or a major reform a totem of immunity for the redesign? Not necessarily : “Someone can quickly take over”, decides an adviser. Other ministers, on the contrary, very quickly understood that they could slow down before leaving their ministry. “We have all made sure that we no longer have any files in progress at the end of April 2022, pending the handover”recalls a member of the Castex government about the end of Emmanuel Macron’s first term.
This year, the reshuffle is inexorably expected: no precise date, nor certainty that it will be well before the summer break. For some, paralysis does not seem far away. “We don’t know if we’ll be there in a week, we wonder if it’s worth preparing for future trips already set, especially abroad”asks an adviser. The context also calls for vigilance, recalls a former Secretary of State: “We are careful not to make mistakes in the money time [le moment où tout se joue]“especially since “everyone is on the defensive”.
Interventions in the media… sometimes a little late
To avoid taking the door, there is another well-known technique. “The ministers who feel more fragile try to have a stronger presence in the media or to exchange more with parliamentarians”explains Stéphane Travert, Minister of Agriculture from June 2017 to October 2018. “Our themes don’t always make the news, that’s also why we communicate”, today defends the cabinet of Jean-Christophe Combe to justify its most frequent appearances in the media in recent weeks. The Minister of Solidarity is not the only one to multiply the interventions: “Some do more media, like Pap Ndiaye, who speaks more often, especially in the written press”notes a former minister, more critical of one of her colleagues.
“The Minister Delegate in charge of the City and Housing, Olivier Klein, is also more active, when not much has happened for a year. There, he is moving.”
A former ministerat franceinfo
It must be said that the news has left him no other choice in recent days. Urban violence, after Nahel’s death, forced him to go to the most affected places. And to address certain subjects such as city policy, the heart of his ministerial portfolio. “He hasn’t been bad for ten days and is going up the slope”recognizes an adviser to another member of the government.
Apart from burning news, multiplying media interventions can nevertheless prove to be perilous for those who are not used to morning radio shows and television sets. “It can be counterproductive: there is a risk of tripping over the carpet by making a mistake, precisely because you haven’t done enough media before… It’s a bit late to be to show !” says a former ministerial adviser. “And you won’t even have time to catch up”insists another adviser. Not everyone can break through the media sound barrier like Rima Abdul Malak did. AT close to his remarkable speeches during the Molières ceremony Or after the Cannes Film Festivalthe Minister of Culture is now described as a “revelation” by some macronists.
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Ministers wishing to save their place encounter another obstacle: the administration. Its members will survive the reshuffle no matter what and may therefore be less cooperative with a politically weakened line minister. “There is a real problem with the administration, points out a former adviser concerned by reshuffles. As soon as there is a suspicion that your minister is leaving, you very clearly feel that the response time to your emails is stretching a little.” “The administration is holding back with four irons”summarizes our former minister. “If the minister is solid, it’s easier to twist their arm”illustrates an adviser.
Faced with these blockages, all you have to do is take your troubles patiently, or think about what’s next. “Those who have a mandate say to themselves that they will be able to return to Parliament. For the others, it is more complicated”comments a minister of Jean Castex about the uncertain future of ministers. “Others prepare their professional landing”remembers a former secretary of state. The matter is even more delicate for personalities from civil society, particularly targeted at the moment. “Under Emmanuel Macron, they are wrung out and thrown into the wild. Like wild species, they never fully recover from this”, picture an ex-counsellor. Before being possibly released, the ministers nevertheless try to deceive them, at all costs. Without managing to fool this ex-minister: “They display a certain serenity, say that they are at work … But inside, it’s bubbling, because it’s a nightmare.”