mali | Stay or go? The time of choice has come for Paris and the Europeans

(Paris) The increasingly execrable relations between the Malian junta and Paris raise the question of the maintenance of a French and European military presence in this country, but the option of a withdrawal is not politically easy, between campaign presidential and French presidency of the European Union.

In recent weeks, the putschists in power in Bamako have crossed one after another the red lines set by neighboring countries and Mali’s foreign partners: refusal to organize elections at short notice with a view to returning power to the civilians, and recourse to the sulphurous Russian paramilitary group Wagner, reputed to be close to the Kremlin, according to Westerners, which the junta denies.

Paris, the European Union and Washington had tried to dissuade the Malian regime from taking this path.

In recent weeks, the French Ministers of Foreign Affairs and the Armed Forces, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Florence Parly, denounced the “unacceptable” nature of a possible deployment of Wagner mercenaries in Mali, deemed “incompatible” with the presence of thousands of French soldiers.

Threats and pressure had no effect, prompting the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to take a battery of economic and diplomatic sanctions against Mali in mid-January.

Engaged militarily since 2012 in the anti-jihadist fight in Mali, at the cost of 52 dead and billions of euros, Paris finally chose to temporize by arguing that the Russians are not currently acting in the same area of ​​Mali as the French.

Puzzled Germans and Swedes

France and its European partners intend to stay in Mali “but not at any price”, the head of French diplomacy Jean-Yves Le Drian cautiously declared on Friday.

Other European partners are openly asking questions.

President Emmanuel Macron is expected to raise the subject on Wednesday during his wishes to the French armies.

The German Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht, recently raised the possibility of relocating “to another place, safer for our soldiers” the contingent engaged in the EUTM, responsible for the initial training of Malian troops.

Sweden, which has around 300 soldiers in Mali, said Thursday that it was “very concerned” about the situation in the country and intends to “analyze the consequences”.

Hostile messages

The Malian junta has not formally asked French and European troops to leave, but it is increasing messages of hostility, surfing on growing anti-French sentiment in the sub-region.

Massive demonstrations against West African sanctions were organized on Friday across Mali at the call of the junta, with a lot of slogans critical of France, the former colonial power.

Transitional Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maïga accused France on Sunday of using West African organizations “to settle other scores”, and mentioned a possible questioning of the defense agreements that bind Paris and Bamako.

“We have received a request from Mali and we are examining it,” a French diplomatic source confirmed on Monday.

Bamako already questioned the freedom of movement of European military aircraft entering or leaving Malian airspace a week ago.

“There is no obstacle to air operations” on Malian territory, nevertheless assured the French general staff on Monday.

If it were to continue, the closure of the Malian air borders, added to the ban on the overflight of French military planes over Algeria decreed in October, would de facto prevent the French armies from continuing their mission, in particular by blocking relief .

Helping people against their will?

“We cannot help people against their will”, summarizes, resigned, a French source close to the executive. At the risk, however, of giving way to Russian influence in this former French square, argue other players in the case.

France, militarily present in Mali for nine years to fight against the jihadists, undertook a reduction in its workforce there this summer.

But it had so far intended to maintain troops in Gao, Ménaka and Gossi, spearheaded by the new European grouping of special forces Takuba, initiated by Paris more than two years ago to share the burden.

Symbol of a Europe of defense dear to Emmanuel Macron, Takuba would disappear in the event of withdrawal, at the very moment when Paris had succeeded in convincing a dozen nations to come and help him. Neighboring Niger has made it known that it will not host this intervention force. In the midst of the French presidency of the European Union and three months before the French presidential election, the setback would be bitter.

Especially since the balance sheet of nine years of intervention is far from being satisfactory.

Jihadist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda have retained a strong power of nuisance despite the execution of many leaders.

The Malian state, for its part, has never really tried to settle permanently in the abandoned territories. And the violence spread to the center of the country then to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, before descending to the south, in the north of Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Ghana.