Emmanuel Macron is navigating a political crisis, with his allies emphasizing his desire to remain influential. As Michel Barnier’s government faces scrutiny, Macron is considering appointing a new leader to stabilize the precarious coalition. Despite a call for democratic legitimacy, his options are limited, and public sentiment holds him responsible for the ongoing turmoil. His popularity has plummeted, prompting concerns about potential calls for his resignation, especially if Barnier’s government is censured.
Is Emmanuel Macron stepping back? A close ally hinted at his enduring ambition to remain pivotal in the political arena, stating, “You will see,” back in early November. The ongoing crisis is accelerating the president’s resurgence as he gears up for the post-Barnier phase.
However, this situation also puts him in the spotlight, as many critics hold him accountable for the current impasse.
Barring an unexpected twist, it is anticipated that Michel Barnier’s government will face significant challenges from the deputies this week. The nation finds itself embroiled once again in one of the most grave political crises of the Fifth Republic, a predicament initially postponed by the appointment of this right-leaning Prime Minister just three months ago.
Throughout this period, the Elysée Palace has remained consistent in its message: “The President of the Republic desires stability,” reiterated his team on Monday morning. They declined to comment further as the prospect of censorship loomed closer.
Recently, however, the head of state has begun to explore his options. A close associate admits that Macron has started to “think” about subsequent actions discreetly.
This confidant believes that prompt action is necessary to appoint a new leader at Matignon, emphasizing the need for swifter decisions than those made after the legislative elections during the summer.
Within his circle, despite some weakening connections, there remains a glimmer of hope for a viable solution. A deputy from Macron’s party, Renaissance, argues, “The Fifth Republic cannot function without the President. After several cycles, Macron must re-enter the atmosphere and guide us.”
The Challenge of ‘Democratic Legitimacy’
Emmanuel Macron finds himself with limited options. Should he reappoint Michel Barnier? Or perhaps select another leader to head the same precarious coalition of centrists and right-wing members? There’s also the possibility of turning to former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, whom he considered in September.
Regardless of the chosen direction, the Assembly faces a critical dilemma: no arrangement appears likely to secure a majority for the 2025 budget, as market anxieties grow.
The president’s stance will be under intense scrutiny.
Having remained relatively quiet on domestic issues in recent months, he must reclaim his role as mediator and make his voice heard. However, a former Macronist minister warns, “He cannot seem to be celebrating Barnier’s downfall.”
“The challenge will be for him to maintain an above-the-fray attitude while public sentiment holds him accountable for the crisis, largely due to the dissolution and France’s escalating public deficit,” explains Bernard Sananès, a pollster from the Elabe institute. He adds, “He is facing repercussions for all he is blamed for, even from segments of his own electorate.”
If the strategists at the Elysée Palace hoped that a presidential reserve would enhance his public image, they have been disappointed: his popularity has plummeted to its lowest levels since he took office in 2017, matching the lows during the yellow vest movement.
Many of his adversaries view Michel Barnier’s failure as a reflection of his leadership since it was Macron who revived the former European Commissioner’s political career. Back then, he opted for the 73-year-old Gaullist over a leftist candidate, citing a criterion of “non-censurability” that now seems quite hollow.
Voices demanding Macron’s resignation are rising from the left, far right, and even the center, suggesting it may be the only viable solution to the ongoing crisis. Among his supporters, there is growing concern that these calls will intensify if Barnier’s government is censured, leading to the downfall of the next administration.
“It’s getting increasingly complicated,” notes political scientist Bruno Cautrès. “From a standpoint of democratic legitimacy, he has little room for error: if he appoints a Prime Minister who also faces censure, or if he dissolves the assembly next summer and loses again, it’s hard to see how he can maintain his position.”