The new year had barely begun when the first controversy was already in full swing in France. While on New Year’s Day a huge flag of the European Union flew under the Arc de Triomphe, half of the French political class shouted loudly.
From Marine Le Pen to Valérie Pécresse, via Éric Zemmour and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, all wanted to recall that, unlike the Eiffel Tower which also displayed the colors of the Union, the Arc de Triomphe was not not just any monument. This gigantic arch was inaugurated in 1836 to honor the soldiers who fell for the country, never another flag had flown there without being accompanied by the tricolor.
Twenty-four hours after being deployed, the banner was immediately withdrawn. Is this a sign of what awaits the French presidency of the Union three months before the presidential elections in France? Still, it is through this first controversy that President Emmanuel Macron inaugurated this rotating presidency this week which, after that of Slovenia and before that of Sweden, will last six months and only returns every 13 years. A presidency which, this year, will encroach largely on an electoral campaign already underway and which will only intensify between now and the first round, on April 10.
This is why, moreover, many observers have stressed that France should have postponed this presidency for six months so that it does not interfere in the campaign. In case of defeat, two months before the end of his mandate, Emmanuel Macron would then find himself in the situation of having to pass the baton to his successor, whose priorities could be radically different.
“A communication campaign”
But the opportunity was probably too good to see scroll under the paneling of the Elysee the officials of the 27 on the occasion of no less than 400 diplomatic events. “It goes without saying that for Macron, this presidency will above all be the occasion for a communication campaign,” writes in Le Figaro economist David Cayla. There is no doubt that it will display a foolproof voluntarism which will be all the more convincing given that none of the files pushed by France will reach its conclusion by April. “
The president indeed announced a vast program of reforms intended to make “Europe powerful in the world, fully sovereign, free of its choices and master of its destiny”. This ranges from the reform of the Schengen area, undermined by the terrorist attacks and the migrant crisis, to the establishment of a European minimum wage, through a strengthening of European defense, the regulation of giants digital technology and the imposition of a carbon tax at the borders of the Union. In order to avoid the “instrumentalization of migrants” recently sent to Poland by Belarus, the president says he wants a Europe “capable of controlling its borders”, which could imply the possibility of returning migrants to the countries of entry into the country. Union, ad hoc mobile checks as well as “an emergency border support mechanism in the event of a crisis”.
None of the files pushed by France will reach its conclusion by now
the month of April.
But it is a long way from the cup to the lips. None of this can be done without the agreement of at least 15 out of 27 states representing at least 65% of the population. Knowing that it takes at least two years for a reform to cross the twists and turns of the European bureaucracy, everyone knows that Emmanuel Macron has no chance of seeing this program come true in the three months that separate him from the presidential election. . And that’s without counting the vagaries of the COVID-19 pandemic which could upset the calendar.
It is clear that, on most of these subjects, European countries most often have divergent interests. So on immigration, while a majority of French people say they are in favor of a moratorium, the new German government of Olaf Scholz says it is ready to naturalize 400,000 qualified migrants every year.
A European minimum wage?
On defense, there are also many disagreements. While several European projects drag on, including the Future Combat Air System intended to create a European combat aircraft, the interests of France and Germany have rarely been so divergent. While Emmanuel Macron maintained in 2019 that NATO was in a state of “brain death”, in Berlin, the new coalition government is resolutely Atlanticist. While in Paris on December 10, the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, the ecologist Annalena Baerbock, reiterated that “for us, it is quite clear that NATO remains an essential pillar for security in Europe”. It even intends to “strengthen the transatlantic alliance in the political field and in all other fields”.
The 27 are also not at the end of their sentence regarding the creation of a “European minimum wage”, Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Italy and Sweden still not having national minimum wage. The Scandinavian countries say they are particularly concerned about preserving their system of collective bargaining by branches. Last year, the monthly minimum wage in Europe fluctuated between 312 euros in Bulgaria and 2,142 euros in Luxembourg.
Difficult reconciliation
In Paris, many are wondering how the president will be able to reconcile this intense European activity and the demands of a presidential campaign which promises to be eventful. In the meantime, the Presidency of the Union is offering the President a golden pretext to declare himself a candidate as late as possible, as several of his predecessors had done before him. We do not expect a declaration of candidacy before the inaugural speech that Emmanuel Macron is to deliver in front of the Strasbourg parliament on January 19.
At the Élysée, we are convinced that the president’s European activism is the ideal opportunity to embody his ambition for France. Skeptics believe, on the contrary, that he can only remove the president from the field of the campaign and the concerns of the French. He is the former columnist of the magazine Point Claude Imbert who joked: “When I hear the word Europe, I take out my pillow”.