The end of a hegemony. Neck and neck with the New Popular Ecological and Social Union on the evening of the first round, Together! could find itself deprived of an absolute majority after the legislative elections on Sunday 19 June. Supporters of Emmanuel Macron qualified for the second round in 417 constituencies, compared to 518 in 2017.
>> Legislative elections: follow the between-two-rounds in our live
The presidential majority could obtain between 255 and 295 seats, saccording to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and the parliamentary channels. Well belowhe 346 deputies who make up the current majority. But the different components of this alliance are not all in the same boat. The Republic on the move had the largest number of candidates, and will always have the largest number of representatives at the Palais-Bourbon. But the MoDem and Horizons achieved better performance, which should give them undeniable political weight.
LREM: between 189 and 219 seats, according to projections
The Macronist wave has not swept over the country as it did five years ago. Of the 400 candidates invested by LREM in the first round, only 288 qualified for the second round. The presidential party is therefore already certain of not keeping the 317 seats it had until now. According to projections by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, the main component of the majority can hope for between 189 and 219 deputies during the next legislature.
Among the 134 LREM candidates who came out on top in the first round, there are several ministers. This is the case of the Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (34.32%) in Calvados, of the Minister for Relations with Parliament, Olivier Veran (40.05%) in Isère, or even the government spokesperson, Olivia Gregoire (39.51%) in Paris.
On the other hand, several members of the government are in difficulty facing candidates from the Nupes who have preceded them. The Minister for the Ecological Transition, Amelie de Montchalin (31.46%) in Essonne, the Minister Delegate for Europe, Clement Beaune (35.81%) in the 7th district of Paris and the Minister of Transformation and the Public Service, Stanislas Guerini (32.5%) in the 3rd district of Paris, will have to resign from the government in the event of defeat. Leading in his constituency of Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, the president of the LREM group in the Assembly, Christopher Castaner (30.16%), ahead of his opponent Nupes by less than 300 votes.
MoDem: between 45 and 50 seats, depending on projections
The MoDem can smile. The party of François Bayrou, an ally of the majority, improves its score by qualifying in 11 constituencies more than five years ago. The centrists, who fielded 110 candidates in the first round, saw 35 of them come out on top. According to projections by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, it should get 45 to 50 seats next Sunday. Enough to weigh in the national political debate with a substantial parliamentary group, but no more than today, since it already has 44 members and nine related deputies.
In detail, the MoDem can hope to count among its future deputies the mMinister of Agriculture, Marc Fesneauwho came out on top in the first round (31.97%) in Loir-et-Cher, the Secretary of State for the Sea, Justine Benin (31.31%) in Guadeloupe or even the former minister Genevieve Darrieussecq (33.39%) in the Landes.
On the other hand, it is much more uncertain for the president of the MoDem group in the National Assembly, Patrick Mignola, who was overtaken in the first round (26.21%) by a candidate from Nupes, in Savoie. Other MoDem personalities are also not guaranteed to retain their mandate on Sunday. This is the case of Jean-Louis Bourlanges (30.08%), who narrowly came out on top in the Hauts-de-Seine, with 600 votes ahead of the candidate of the union of the left.
Horizons: between 21 and 26 seats, depending on projections
Edouard Philippe has reason to be satisfied with the scores achieved by Horizons in the first round. Of the 58 candidates presented by his new party, 42 qualified for the second round and 24 came out on top on Sunday. A performance which, if confirmed in the second round, will allow the former Prime Minister to put pressure on the executive and, above all, to exist politically before the presidential election of 2027. According to projections, Horizons may aim for between 21 and 26 seats, well above the 15-seat threshold needed to form a group.
He’s a Horizons candidate, Yannick Favennec-Becotwho achieves the feat of being the only majority MP elected in the first round (57.13%), in Mayenne. The only downside for Edouard Philippe: the poor score of Pierre-Yves Bournazel (35.57%) in the 18th district of Paris against the candidate of Nupes, Aymeric Caron (45.05%). Outgoing deputy, it was he who had negotiated the nominations with LREM and the MoDem, and he was expected to chair the Horizons group in the Assembly.