Nearly a year before the next presidential elections in Bolivia, the future of democracy in this Andean country is thrown into doubt by an attempted coup. Earlier on the afternoon of June 26, Bolivian national police and army forces broke ranks to participate in a forced entry into the presidential palace, Palacio Quemado, in La Paz.
Accompanied by tanks, the forces were led by General Juan José Zúñiga Macías, commander general of the army (the highest position in the military branch), with the support of the vice admiral of the navy.
Zúñiga and his forces wanted three things: the impeachment of President Luis Arce, the banning of former President Evo Morales from running again in elections and the release of former interim President Jeanine Áñez and opposition leader Luis Fernando Camacho, the latter two now in prison.
Arce and Morales both belong to the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, which emerged in the early 2000s as a left-wing, pro-indigenous party in a country long dominated by the militarist and Christian right.
Zúñiga and his cronies argued outside the Palacio Quemado that Arce and Morales were threatening democracy, an allegation backed by some of the authoritarian measures implemented by both presidents. Notably, Morales had renewed the Constitution and extended his presidential term, while Arce targeted NGOs and journalists opposed to his government and deployed the armed forces to manage protesters in the conservative city of Santa Cruz.
Áñez and Camacho, meanwhile, were imprisoned for their roles in the 2019 uprising that led to the forced removal of Evo Morales following allegations of election fraud from the Organization of American States. With the support of the army and police, the opposition organized violent protests in Santa Cruz and La Paz, forcing Morales to flee to Mexico, after which Áñez assumed the interim presidency “until the democracy be restored,” she proclaimed from the same Palacio Quemado, brandishing a Christian Bible.
A very close tie between Morales and Arce
Currently, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this new coup attempt. Arce and Morales are currently in an ideological civil war within the MAS, and their versions of history reflect this dichotomy. Arce is seen as a technocratic economist and crisis manager (he was Morales’ finance minister during his best economic years), while Morales is seen as a charismatic and flamboyant leader capable of leading the region’s left-wing governments.
Arce and allied socialist governments in the Western Hemisphere, including Xiomara Castro in Honduras, Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, have all strongly denounced the coup and expressed support for continued democracy. Maduro, meanwhile, has expressed direct support for both Arce and Morales, possibly in an attempt to curry favor with both men after the next election.
Arce’s camp blames both Morales and the right-wing opposition for orchestrating the coup, pointing the finger at Morales, who allegedly worked with the right to spread damaging stories (some of them false) against Arce, and organized simultaneous protests. Morales’ side, meanwhile, claims that the coup was actually a self-coup arranged by Arce to consolidate his own presidential power.
Polling data on the upcoming election shows a very close tie between Morales and Arce, with the economic and financial crisis and the slow results of lithium industrialization costing Arce support in MAS-supporting areas. An Erdoğan-style self-coup, Morales’ camp claims, would help Arce hold or cancel the election and justify actions against his political enemies in the name of democratic continuity.
Cyclical political instability
This week is the General Assembly of the Organization of American States in Washington, and the putsch could be an opportunity for Arce to denounce his perceived detractors and rally the region around his vision of a democratic future. Still, Morales and Arce have both denounced Zúñiga’s efforts as a coup.
The right, for now, has not taken a unified position on the coup, perhaps wisely choosing to wait for the situation to evolve before choosing a side. Neither Áñez nor Camacho have commented on the events.
Zúñiga, after apparently speaking directly with Arce’s government, has now ceased his efforts and has been arrested by state authorities. The commander was unable to muster enough support, and has surrendered. The right’s support base is mainly in Santa Cruz, but has struggled to capture national fervor since the rise of the MAS nearly two decades ago, which may explain the failure of the revolt.
As a result, the right has historically relied on the military and police for power, attempting to repeat the outcome of the 2019 election or perhaps return to the military governments of the 20th century.e century. This development, in effect, puts a halt to hopes for a peaceful and stable election in 2025, and calls into question the stability of democracy in Bolivia, which next year celebrates 200 years of independence from Spain colonial.
Bolivia has suffered a series of coups and violent protests throughout its modern democratic history, from the US-backed military dictatorship during the Cold War in Cochabamba in 2000, to the disputed elections of 2005, 2014 and 2019, to the blockades in Santa Cruz in 2022. Almost the entire process of lithium industrialization since 2006 has been marked by violent resistance throughout the country, leaving many dead.
Unfortunately, political violence, while contained, seems to be part of Bolivia’s democratic ethos. Bolivians have become conditioned to the cyclical nature of political instability in their country. While some have chosen to leave the country, many have lost interest altogether. Elena, a street vendor in El Alto, said of the coup that “it always happens, but our lives go on, we will manage with or without our so-called leaders.” It remains to be seen whether this time will be different.