The arrival of Denis Coderre at the head of the Liberal Party of Quebec would allow the party to finally rise in voting intentions, shows a new Léger-The newspaper-VAT. No offense to skeptics, the “Coderre effect” is very real.
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You have to go back to December 2020 to obtain a similar score.
“Denis Coderre has a real effect on voting intentions. It allows the Liberal Party to return to the electoral fight, which is not currently the case,” underlines Jean-Marc Léger.
And the former federal minister will seek this support “almost everywhere”, both in other political parties and in the various regions of Quebec. “They are orphan liberals, federalists, scattered,” observes the pollster.
Although he has not yet confirmed his intention to run for the leadership in the spring of 2025, Denis Coderre recently promoted his potential candidacy during a major media tour.
Conversely, if she decided to jump into the fray, Liberal MP Marwah Rizqy would barely move the poll needle. Pregnant with a second child, the Liberal MP has, however, already given up on being in the running, despite invitations from numerous political analysts.
“Marwah Rizqy has an exceptional performance in the bedroom, but he remains a creature of the media,” observes the president of the Léger firm.
Under Frédéric Beauchemin, the only other candidate expected in the upcoming race, the situation of the Liberal Party would deteriorate completely. The Liberals would collect 2% less than today.
- Listen to the interview with Jean-Marc Léger, president of the Léger polling firm speaking to Mario Dumont via QUB:
Among the liberals too
If he decides to go for it, Denis Coderre will also leave with significant support among liberal voters: 27% of them believe that he would make the best leader for their party.
This support far exceeds that which could receive the son of former Prime Minister Jean Charest, Antoine Dionne-Charest (11%), and Marwah Rizqy (10%) if they were to decide to try their luck.
Frédéric Beauchemin and Balarama Holness are “within the margin of error”.
The dominant position of the ex-mayor is, however, very fragile. He is currently riding on his notoriety, but will have to pass the credibility test with Quebec voters.
“If it’s the old Denis Coderre, it’s certain that he will be rejected like Montrealers rejected him twice,” says Jean-Marc Léger.
But if he comes up with solutions to the problems currently experienced by citizens, voters will be ready to listen to him, he believes.
An issue for the CAQ
Furthermore, the arrival of Denis Coderre could mean a new red light on the CAQ dashboard.
Indeed, 28% of CAQ members believe that the ex-mayor would make the best leader for the PLQ. According to Jean-Marc Léger, these are federalist voters who could desert François Legault’s party.
“The nationalists were picked up by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, then Denis Coderre had a certain impact with the CAQ federalists. This is not good news for the CAQ,” notes Mr. Léger.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted among 1,032 Quebecers aged 18 and over, in French and English, from February 2 to 5, 2024. The data was weighted in order to be representative of the population. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample taken from a panel, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for such a sample is ± 3.05% (Quebec), and this , 19 times out of 20.