the new Leger survey on voting intentions in Quebec is yet another bad news for our politicians.
With the exception of the Conservative Party of Quebec and its leader Eric Duhaime, this survey brings bad news both for the CAQ government and for the three oppositions.
The Liberal Party of Quebec
Despite a slight (negligible) increase in votes among Francophones (11%), the national needle remains stuck at 20%. We have to go back to September 29, 2018, before the day of the vote for the last elections, to find a poll placing them at 30% of the voting intentions. To see better numbers for the Liberals. With less than 10 months to go before the next election, they will have to show originality to move the needle in their favour. The next return to parliament is the last opportunity to demonstrate that they can stand up to the government and perhaps save their skins as the official opposition.
The Parti Quebecois
The crossing of the PQ desert continues. In fourth position in voting intentions nationally, they account for 11% in voting intentions among Francophones, tied with the PLQ and the PCQ! Worse still, less than one out of three PQ voters (28%) think that PSPP would make the best prime minister. This means that two-thirds of PQ voters are not convinced of the skills of a PQ leader, that’s huge! In addition, they must combine with voting intentions that do not exceed 9% in the Montreal region (tied with the PCQ!), a few days after announcing that their leader will run in Bourget, a Montreal riding.
The Conservative Party of Quebec
It is the one that has experienced the strongest increase in voting intentions, ie 6% compared to the sounding of December 2 last. This is probably a reflection of the collective fed up with the pandemic and the various measures imposed by the government without justification as to their effectiveness, including the curfew. One thing is certain, this support is certainly circumstantial and therefore very volatile. The PCQ could go down as quickly as soon as the government has regained some consistency in these decisions. In addition, the elections being next October, I bet that the majority will have forgotten, when voting, that on December 31, we all received an Amber alert type message which angered more than one.
Yellow lights for the government
Still at the top of the polls, the CAQ continues to stand out, especially among Francophones with an impressive 48% of voting intentions. However, with 42% of voting intentions nationally, they will have to start paying attention so that this drop in voting intentions does not turn into a trend that is difficult to stop. The numbers are still good, even very good and to maintain them they will have to be more careful and less arrogant. To be continued!