Reduced opening hours, closed businesses, lost contracts, the effects of the labor shortage are increasingly being felt, but the worst is yet to come. Quebec is preparing to experience a “historic low” of workers available in 2030, indicates the Minister of Labor, who warns that it will be necessary to work older.
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“We do not have enough people to ensure a replacement rate, which means that between 2019 and 2028, economists and demographers anticipate about 1.4 million vacant positions”, coldly analyzes Jean Boulet, sleeves recorded, from his office in the National Assembly.
The observation is clear: “It will not be miraculously reabsorbed and I repeat, it is a social challenge”, he slices.
Quebec will find itself facing a wall in 2030, when the proportion of the working population will drop to 60.4% as our society ages.
Other countries have experienced the same issue and fared well, notably the United States and, more critically, Japan. In this country the retirement age has been pushed back to 70, says Jean Boulet. “Everything is automated” and “they have almost no immigration,” he emphasizes.
Four great pillars
The government’s strategy, an important part of which will be unveiled on Thursday, during the economic update, is based on four main pillars: requalification, integration, immigration and job retention.
According to him, bringing in skilled workers “is an attractive option […], but first we have to work with our workforce here ”.
This is why Quebec wants to encourage workers to re-qualify. Those who “aspired to reorient themselves [mais] did not know how to do it ”will have opportunities to“ shape themselves personally ”, reveals Jean Boulet. The government also intends to involve everyone to take up this challenge, including certain “clienteles” where the employment rate remains lower: people with disabilities, applicants for social reintegration and young people.
The end of “freedom 55”
Quebecers will also have to get used to the idea, they will have to work older, loose Jean Boulet. “We have too many retirements too quickly,” he says.
The minister says he is convinced that “part of the paradigm shifts that the labor shortage will impose” will come back to employers, so that they make sure to accommodate their older workers.
People 71 and over might want to continue working and it is important to “open up to that”. “Linear routes, we’re going to see less and less of them […] And the lifespan of a career will increase dramatically, I’m sure, ”he says.
Companies will also have their part to do, in particular to “automate, robotize, digitize”, an “unavoidable imperative”, according to him.
“HEC studies show that only 25% of the business processes of manufacturing companies in Quebec are completely automated, whereas it is 55% in the United States, 75% in Germany,” points out Jean Boulet.
Yes, the labor shortage “slows down the development” of some companies, he admits.
But if this issue is not “a responsibility which rests solely on the shoulders of the State”, Quebec will be there to support them, he assures us.
There is no shortage of ideas to compensate for the lack of personnel in companies. If Minister Boulet welcomes some, he rejects several others. Overview :
Would it be possible not to impose overtime, to encourage workers to stay longer at work?
“The tax exemption for overtime is not an option that we are considering. We do more thinking about potential tax incentives. There are some to which I have already referred, such as the tax credit, the ability to choose whether or not to contribute to the Régie des rentes du Québec after a certain age.
Could you force certain sectors to close on Sundays to help them offer better working conditions?
Free choice. This was mentioned when there was the debate with the Association des quincailliers du Québec. Everyone is free and it is not something that is being analyzed at this time.
What do you think of improving tax incentives to encourage the hiring of workers?
Everything is on the table, says Minister Boulet, in particular improving tax incentives for the integration and improvement of the employment rate of 60 to 69 year olds.
While the labor shortage creates many opportunities, only the best qualified will be able to benefit. Here are the “skills of the future” that will be sought after by employers:
- Literacy and Numeracy Knowledge
- Know how to collaborate
- Being able to solve problems
- Have judgment
- Act as an ethical citizen
- Demonstrate autonomy
- Be empathetic
- Manage people
- Implement your creative thinking
Source: The Labor Market Partners Commission (CPMT)
The public sector is cracking up everywhere and Quebec fully intends to get down to filling in the gaps before turning its attention to the areas most in demand from the private sector.
- Psychologists, social workers and everything that revolves around youth protection and mental health
- Beneficiary attendants
- Educators
- Nurses
- Teachers
* To achieve this, the Minister intends to draw inspiration from the paid work-study training program that he announced last April to eventually recruit 2,400 educators.
- Information technology
- Construction
- Genie
* Quebec intends to increase awareness of its recruitment programs, which companies are too often unaware of.
- 1.4 million jobs will be filled over the period 2019-2028.
- 80% of these positions will be created by retirements, the rest by job creation.
- The proportion of the working population (15 to 64 year olds) will decrease steadily from 2021 to 2030
- 17% by the increase in the activity rate of 15 to 64 year olds
- 22% by immigration
- 8% by people aged 65 and over
- 54% of young people entering the labor market
Source: Quebec Institute of Statistics
