Kremlin propaganda | “The erosion of the Russian consensus on Ukraine is coming”

Ilya Yablokov, a Russian media scholar and professor at the University of Sheffield, UK, believes Moscow’s propaganda about the Ukrainian invasion is doomed. The Press spoke to him.

Nicolas Berube
The Press

What is the current atmosphere among Russian journalists?

Dozens of journalists and executives left their posts in Russia a month ago. Some are even beginning to divulge the guidelines communicated to them by their bosses since the start of the war.

That said, the majority of Russian media workers remain in their jobs. People have to pay their mortgages, they have to repay loans… With the economic crisis on the horizon, finding another job will become impossible. I believe that people have moral questions that are not pleasant to have, but in the end, the majority will choose to stay the course and not change anything in their employment relationship.

The Independent Russian Daily Novaya Gazeta recently published empty pages to show the impact of censorship on the dissemination of information about the invasion of Ukraine. What do you think of this approach?

It’s very Soviet as a gesture. It’s a tactic that dates back to the early 1990s, when the media wanted to make the Russian public understand what conservative authorities allowed and didn’t allow to be written. Today, the difference is that thanks to the Internet, social networks, readers of Novaya Gazeta know very well what is happening in Ukraine. Posting empty pages is a bit like breaking down an already open door.

The sad thing is that the message is not yet reaching the ears of Russians who support Putin. At the moment, the Kremlin’s message is much stronger and much more unified.

Do you believe this will change?

Yes, because of the sanctions. Let’s not forget that the public that supports Putin is not yet feeling the effect of the economic sanctions that have just been adopted by Western countries. For them, nothing has changed yet, but it’s only a matter of time. I think the erosion of the Russian consensus on Ukraine is coming. In a few months, when more conscripted soldiers are sent to Ukraine, when more economic damage is felt in Russia, when more people lose their jobs, it will be the beginning of a questioning of Kremlin policy.

Aren’t you afraid that the Kremlin will use the pretext of Western sanctions to unite the Russians and whip up their patriotic fiber?

This is probably what the regime will want to do, and it will work for part of the electorate, but don’t think it will win over the majority. The support block for Putin will crumble. People will stop believing in Putin’s ability to lead the country. They are not going to say it openly, they will have to be silent. People will be afraid to do something unless there is a triggering event, a spark if you will.

Putin will not be able to remove the dead and wounded Russian soldiers who will be repatriated. Some estimates already speak of 10,000 dead Russian soldiers. The capacity of the state to hide what is really going on in Ukraine is high, but when you have hundreds of mothers across the country who stand up and speak their grief and their anger… This is one of the events which could spark widespread protests.

In Syria, let us remember that the civil war started when a handful of teenagers were abducted and tortured by the police for doing graffiti. No one knew at that time that this would lead to such a great conflict. I think that kind of spark is possible in Russia.