Job Outlook: Key Sector at Risk of Shedding 100,000 Positions by 2025

Olivier Salleron, president of the French Federation of Building, emphasizes the construction sector’s stable employment levels, with over 1.2 million workers despite a two-year real estate crisis. However, upcoming legislative changes threaten this stability, as critical measures in the 2025 finance bill may not be approved, risking significant job losses. The industry faces a 25% increase in business failures and a projected drop in housing production, which could leave many workers unemployed without urgent government intervention.

Employment Stability in the Construction Sector

“We only resort to layoffs when circumstances become dire, not as a preemptive measure,” asserts Olivier Salleron, the president of the French Federation of Building (FFB). He takes pride in the fact that employment levels have remained robust, with over 1.2 million full-time equivalent employees and temporary workers in the sector for 2024, despite facing a real estate crisis that has persisted for more than two years. This stance serves as a pointed contrast to announcements of layoffs from other industries, such as automotive suppliers and retail groups.

The Potential Impact of Upcoming Legislative Changes

Although the construction industry has managed to uphold employment levels, this may not be sustainable moving forward. With the Barnier government’s recent censorship halting the examination of the 2025 finance bill, critical measures aimed at revitalizing real estate purchases are now in jeopardy. Prospective homeowners are grappling with credit rates exceeding 3%, which complicates their ability to enter the market.

The original finance bill included proposals such as extending zero-interest loans across the territory and exempting family donations for new home purchases from transfer taxes. These initiatives were expected to yield an estimated “5,000 to 10,000 additional homes,” according to Salleron. Additionally, there was a provision for Pinel investors to have an extended period until March 31, 2025, to finalize property deeds.

Salleron warns that if a revised finance bill, incorporating these essential measures, is not swiftly approved, the construction sector could face significant employment losses. The number of business failures in the industry has surged nearly 25% in the first 11 months of 2024, leading to predictions of up to 100,000 job cuts in 2025, a stark increase from the 30,000 layoffs anticipated in 2024.

Moreover, the decline in housing unit production poses serious risks. Without stimulus measures, housing starts are projected to drop to 239,000 units next year, a decrease from 253,000 in 2024, marking the lowest levels since 1954. This downturn has a cascading effect: for every housing unit that remains unbuilt, “two construction workers are left on the sidelines,” Salleron points out, emphasizing the urgent need for legislative support to safeguard jobs in the construction sector.

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