“It’s a bolt from the blue” which “could not leave Tehran indifferent,” says researcher David Rigoulet-Roze

For Middle East specialist David Rigoulet-Roze, if the death of the Hezbollah leader is confirmed it could constitute a regional “explosion”.

The Israeli army announced on Saturday September 28 that it had “eliminated” Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in a strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut. For the moment, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed the death. “It’s a clap of thunder”reacts on franceinfo David Rigoulet-Roze, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and editor-in-chief of the journal Orients Stratégiques.

franceinfo: Hassan Nasrallah has shown himself very little in recent years?

David Rigoulet-Roze: He made very few public appearances over the last twenty years, it was extremely rare, quite simply because he knew he was exposed. He was the embodiment of Hezbollah, he was more than just a leader. Firstly because he was closely linked to the Iranian regime, to the Supreme Guide. It’s a sayyida descendant of the prophet’s family, there is also a religious aura associated with his person. So if his death is confirmed, it constitutes a bolt from the blue.

However, the strikes carried out by Israel in Lebanon will not stop?

It is unlikely that the war logic will end with the disappearance of the leader of Hezbollah, because that could constitute an explosion. It is obvious that this will not leave Tehran indifferent.

“Until now, Iran had adopted a posture of indirect support, avoiding an escalatory logic, or even reserve. But given what has just happened, it is impossible to maintain a status quo of this nature. And therefore the real question is going to be about the nature of the Iranian response.”

David Rigoulet-Roze

at franceinfo

For you, will there be a response from Iran?

Hezbollah is the “crown jewel”, it is a creation of Iran. There will be an answer. The real question is the nature of this response. Because indeed, on the conventional level, Iran is very constrained. Iran does not want to take the risk of being drawn into a direct confrontation with the United States in particular, because Iran knows that the risk would be immense. But at the same time, it is impossible to do nothing. There is an arbitration. Yesterday, there was also a meeting of the security council around the Supreme Guide to define what the nature of this response and the underlying strategic expectations could be.