Will Benjamin Netanyahu be able to control his far-right allies? The question is on everyone’s lips in Israel and the occupied West Bank, where there are fears of a military escalation in the wake of the most serious violence in this Palestinian territory since the second intifada.
After his victory in the legislative elections of 1er November, then weeks of negotiations with his allies from the ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties, Benjamin Netanyahu announced to President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday that he had managed to form a government, the most right-wing in the history of Israel.
In this coalition, the tenors of the extreme right Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir will be respectively responsible for the settlements in the West Bank and National Security.
At least three senior Western diplomats have told AFP they are concerned about the arrival of Itamar Ben-Gvir as head of the police, which includes units of the paramilitary force of border guards deployed in the West Bank, after a already tense year.
A wave of attacks left more than 20 dead in Israel, while Israeli raids and clashes left more than 150 dead in the West Bank, which has seen its deadliest violence since the end of the second intifada (2000). -2005), Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation, according to UN data.
West Bank under tension
The Israeli press has echoed in recent weeks the risk of having “two” armies in the West Bank with the army on one side and the border guards on the other.
For Amir Avivi, reserve brigadier general and director of a network bringing together former security officials, “it is indeed the army that commands” in the West Bank. “I don’t see any scenario in which Ben-Gvir could lead border guard operations there,” he told AFP.
For the Palestinian analyst Khaldoun Barghouti, the question is not so much the rules of engagement of the Israeli forces in the West Bank, but rather a development of the colonies or the annexation of territories.
“The measures of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will destroy the very possibility of a Palestinian state. This will push the Palestinians into more desperation […]what happens on the ground will determine the nature of the escalation,” he adds.
More than 475,000 settlers currently live in the occupied West Bank, dividing up this territory and threatening, according to the UN, the two-state solution, an independent and stable Palestine alongside Israel.
However, Bezalel Smotrich has already announced his project to legalize a set of so-called “wild” settlements, that is to say not recognized by Israel.
Washington, Israel’s foremost ally, will “unequivocally oppose any action that endangers the two-state solution, including settlement expansion, moves to annex the West Bank, disrupt the status quo history of holy sites, demolitions and evictions, and incitement to violence,” warned Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Third intifada?
The esplanade of the Mosques, the third holiest place in Islam, the holiest place in Judaism under its name of Temple Mount, is the recurring focus of tension in East Jerusalem, the Palestinian sector of the holy city annexed by Israel.
Under a status quo historically, non-Muslims can go to the esplanade, but not pray there. “If Ben-Gvir manages to convince Netanyahu, or orders the police to change the conduct of Israeli citizens on the Temple Mount, it will lead to a third intifada,” warned outgoing Public Security Minister Omer Barlev.
In May 2021, tensions in Jerusalem, especially on the esplanade, led the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas to launch salvos of rockets from the Gaza enclave towards Israeli territory, a prelude to a new deadly war between the two camps.
The visits to the esplanade made this year by Itamar Ben-Gvir have each time been described as a “provocation” by Hamas.
About the esplanade, “I don’t see Ben-Gvir doing anything without the agreement of Netanyahu and the security cabinet,” Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, told AFP.
Especially since a change to the status quo or incidents on the esplanade could also have regional repercussions, as Israel seeks normalization with Saudi Arabia, as it did with two other Gulf countries under the Abraham Accords.
Only two things could affect the Abraham Accords, Yaldin said: tensions on “the Temple Mount and clashes, by which I mean bloodshed.”