While intensifying its bombings in the Gaza Strip, Israel is increasing its warnings towards Hezbollah in order to avoid its entry into war in support of Hamas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a new warning on Tuesday on this subject, noting that the Lebanese Shiite movement would face “horrible consequences” if it decided to intervene in a “significant” way in the conflict.
The Israeli leader had warned two days earlier during a visit near the country’s northern border, where several exchanges of fire took place, that the Islamist organization would make “the mistake of its life” by going ‘Before.
PHOTO JALAA MAREY, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
An Israeli soldier prays in a bunker near the Lebanese border.
Analysts consulted by The Press believe that the scenario mentioned by the Israeli Prime Minister is unlikely to occur for the moment since Iran, which controls Hezbollah, has “no interest” in launching its militiamen in a major offensive.
Alex Vatanka, an Iran specialist attached to the Middle East Institute, notes that Tehran would ultimately like Hamas to remain in place in Gaza to put pressure on Israel, but does not intend to sacrifice Hezbollah to achieve this.
The Lebanese movement, underlines the analyst, is the main tool available to the Iranian regime to deter any attack against its own territory by Israel or the United States, and intends to keep its strike force “intact” for this purpose.
The exchanges of fire that have occurred over the past two weeks at the border remain limited and aim, notes Mr. Vatanka, to “make Israel think” to encourage it to moderate its military actions in Gaza while taking care not to exceed a threshold likely to trigger a muscular response from Tel Aviv.
PHOTO ZOHRA BENSEMRA, REUTERS
The coffin of a Hezbollah fighter is carried by crowds during his funeral in Babliyeh, Lebanon.
Other armed groups close to Iran in Yemen, Syria and Iraq are also used for this purpose, he said.
The risk of slipping
Israeli warnings, and the deployment by the United States of warships in the Persian Gulf, are the counterpart of these attempts at dissuasion, notes Joost Hiltermann, Middle East specialist at the International Crisis Group, who does not also does not believe in Hezbollah’s entry into the war.
“It is not in Iran’s interest to encourage an escalation of this nature,” notes the specialist, who does not rule out possible slip-ups.
The risk with deterrence campaigns is that they can sometimes go wrong.
Joost Hiltermann, Middle East specialist at the International Crisis Group
Mr. Vatanka notes that Hezbollah is much better equipped militarily than it was in 2006 during the previous clash with Israel and would be able to impose significant damage on the country’s infrastructure with the arsenal estimated at nearly 150 000 missiles it has.
The Shiite organization would not emerge any less “destroyed” from a head-on confrontation, says the analyst, who expects that Iran will instead seek to take advantage of the current crisis situation to activate itself on the diplomatic plan with a view to torpedoing the rapprochements that have occurred in recent years between Israel and several Arab countries.
Hamas, he said, will try to take advantage of the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip in the hope of “imposing its narrative” and placing Israel on the defensive.
Lively debates in the Security Council
The situation of the population of the small Palestinian territory sparked heated debates on Tuesday in New York during a meeting of the Security Council, during which the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, was critical.
The UN leader aroused the ire of Tel Aviv by noting that the “appalling” attacks by Hamas, which left more than 1,400 dead on the Israeli side, could not justify a form of “collective punishment” for the population of Gaza.
PHOTO SETH WENIG, ASSOCIATED PRESS
António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations
Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, called for the immediate resignation of Mr. Guterres, accusing him of showing “understanding for the campaign of mass murder” carried out against the population of his country .
According to the most recent count by health authorities in Gaza, more than 5,700 Palestinians have died since the start of the wave of bombings launched as retaliation by Israel, which intends to “destroy” Hamas.
Tel Aviv at the same time imposed a blockade limiting the entry of food, water, medicine and fuel and demanded the displacement of the Palestinian population in the south of the landlocked territory.
Nearly one and a half million residents, out of a total of two million, have had to leave their homes for two weeks, according to the United Nations.
Around sixty trucks carrying essential goods have been able to deliver their goods to Gaza in recent days, a quantity well below the needs, according to humanitarian workers on the ground.
PALESTINIAN RED CRESCENT PHOTO, PROVIDED BY REUTERS
Members of the Palestinian Red Crescent distribute humanitarian aid in Khan Younes, Gaza Strip.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) warned that the continuation of its aid distribution activities would be compromised from Wednesday due to the lack of fuel.
These warnings come as the Israeli army continues its preparations for a ground offensive aimed in particular at destroying Hamas’ underground infrastructure. A spokesperson said Tuesday that the Israeli army was “ready and determined” for the next phase of the conflict and was awaiting orders from the government on it.
Many countries have called for the operation to be delayed while discussions continue to free the 220 hostages held in Gaza. Four women have been released so far.