What is the origin of this concern?
It is not news that Ramadan – which begins on Monday in most countries – is accompanied by an upsurge in violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This year, however, the holy month takes place in a particularly explosive context.
During Ramadan, tens of thousands of faithful gather at the al-Aqsa mosque, located in East Jerusalem, a Palestinian sector occupied and annexed by Israel.
The compound is the third holiest site in Islam. But it is also a holy place for the Jews, who call it “Temple Mount”.
In recent years, Israeli police have sometimes restricted access to the mosque during the holy month, leading to clashes with Muslim worshipers.
Is this what happened in 2021?
Notably. In the middle of Ramadan, violent clashes broke out at the Esplanade des Mosques, a holy site in Jerusalem, leaving hundreds of Palestinians injured.
PHOTO AMMAR AWAD, REUTERS ARCHIVES
A Palestinian prays on May 7, 2021, as Israeli police gather in the compound that houses the Al-Aqsa mosque.
After weeks of tensions, Hamas fired rockets at Israel, which responded with airstrikes. The fighting, which lasted 11 days, left 250 people dead in the Gaza Strip and 13 in Israel.
“Israelis fear a repeat of what happened in 2021,” said James Gelvin, professor at the University of California at Los Angeles.
In recent years, clashes have regularly occurred at the al-Aqsa mosque. Hamas also cited “daily attacks” against the religious site as the reason for the October 7 attack.
Could the same thing happen this year?
This is what many fear. Earlier this week, US President Joe Biden called for a “ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip before the start of Ramadan.
Otherwise, “Israel and Jerusalem could become very, very dangerous places,” he warned.
However, negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza are currently at an impasse, raising fears of an escalation of violence across the region.
In February, King Abdullah II of Jordan warned that “the continuation of the war against Gaza during the holy month of Ramadan” would only worsen “the threat of an extension of the conflict”.
How is Israel preparing for Ramadan?
“The Israeli authorities are divided,” remarks James Gelvin.
On the one hand, the Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, called for prohibiting Palestinians from entering the al-Aqsa mosque. “We can’t take any risks,” he justified.
On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured that “everything” would be done to “guarantee freedom of worship on the Temple Mount and allow Muslims to celebrate, while taking into account security requirements”.
Recently, the Israeli government announced that Muslim worshipers would be able to pray on the Mosque Esplanade “in the same numbers as in previous years”.
“The Israeli intelligence service warned against the risk of escalating the situation by restricting access to Al-Aqsa,” explains Mr. Gelvin.
If an overflow were to occur, Israel “fears a spread of the current violence in the Gaza Strip as well as in the West Bank”, adds the specialist in the history of the Middle East.
What does Hamas say?
In a televised speech, the leader of the Islamist movement, Ismail Haniyeh, invited Muslims to go to the al-Aqsa mosque “from the first day of the blessed month of Ramadan” in order to “end the siege imposed on it” .
Another Hamas spokesperson called Ramadan the “month of victory, month of jihad,” adding that the group defended the honor of Muslims around the world in the Gaza Strip.
“We call on our people to march on Jerusalem… to pray in the mosque… and to prevent the occupation from achieving its goals of control and division. The al-Aqsa Mosque belongs to us,” he said.