Against the energy crisis, we must restore the nuclear soldier. Friday, September 2, at the end of the energy defense council, chaired by Emmanuel Macron, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Minister for Energy Transition notes the damage: “32 reactors are currently shut down” out of a total of 56, i.e. more than half of the French nuclear fleet. Faced with this historic record of unavailability, the minister decreed the “general mobilization” and report “that EDF has undertaken to restart all the reactors for this winter”. But is this goal attainable?
LIVE Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Energy Transition, speaks after the Defense Council ➡️ “The key is general mobilization. The government has anticipated, we have secured our gas stocks. They are filled to 92 %”, she announces. pic.twitter.com/xYqn8ire5q
— franceinfo (@franceinfo) September 2, 2022
“We have to decipher what the minister means when she announces that EDF is going to relaunch all the nuclear reactorswarns Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting. When we say that all reactors [en arrêt cet été] will be restarted for this winter, this does not mean that they will all operate at the same time.” “EDF’s commitment is to restart the reactors before the end of the winter season“, with a schedule “which runs until February”confirms Yves Marignac, energy specialist for the Negawatt association.
The schedule for restarting EDF’s nuclear sites currently shut down, which franceinfo was able to consult, provides that of the 33 reactors unavailable on September 7, nine will be restarted by October 1, the date which corresponds to the start of “energy winter”, a period during which the consumption of electricity for heating increases, explains Nicolas Goldberg. The availability of the other twenty-four reactors is spread out until February 18.
Contacted by franceinfo, the cabinet of Agnès Pannier-Runacher confirms that the minister referred in her remarks to the timetable provided by EDF, which “specifies that the reactors currently shut down will be put back into operation by the end of winter”.
But even spread out until the end of the winter season, “the restart objective seems unrealistic in its current state”, believes Yves Marignac. The dates for returning the reactors to service announced by EDF are only indicative and are subject to “true hazard”, warns the specialist. “In the case of maintenance stoppages, the possible appearance of anomalies during the planned checks may lead to a delay in reminders in relation to the planned schedule”underlines the nuclear expert. “For ten years, we have observed an increase in these delays linked to the aging of power plants, he noteswhich makes it more difficult to carry out operations within the desired timeframe.”
However, according to Julien Collet, Deputy Director General of the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN), 2022 is a “exceptional year” in terms of maintenance works. Among the thirty or so reactors currently shut down, “a dozen reactors must be repaired following a corrosion problem“. Spotted by EDF at the end of 2021, the “stress corrosion” particularly affects the piping of the “safety injection circuit“, a protective device charged with “emergency cooling of a reactor“in the event of a breach in its cooling circuit, explains Yves Marignac. “It is an essential system to prevent an accident from turning into a Fukushima-type disaster”warns the Negawatt expert.
Problem: to repair this sensitive breakdown, EDF lacks arms. The electrician only has a limited number “qualified operators” to realize “extremely delicate welds” necessary to remedy the corrosion of the pipes, details Yves Marignac. But these technicians will have to “intervening in an irradiated area within the reactor enclosure”, which will prevent them from multiplying the building sites. Due to the constraints of “radiation protection”, explains the specialist, an operator cannot be exposed to a level of radiation exceeding a maximum dose beyond which he will no longer be authorized to work. The availability of teams, subject to health protection measures, is one of the “main constraints” which weighs on the repair schedule, also confirms Julien Collet of ASN.
“We have a lot of projects to manage at the same time and therefore in a way, we are short of manpower.had recognized at the end of August before the Medef the boss of EDF, Jean-Bernard Levy, continuing: We lack arms because we don’t have enough trained teams.” The CEO held the state responsible, saying: “We were told: ‘Prepare to close the next twelve’. We, with the sector, we did not hire people to build twelve plants, we hired to close twelve.” An outing which had earned him a scathing response from Emmanuel Macron, accusing him of“irresponsible”.
But even if all the reactors currently shut down managed to be restarted, it “is not at all possible” that 100% of the nuclear fleet is at the same time in working order, slice Yves Marignac. Because, “for refueling or annual or ten-year inspections”a number of reactors regularly find themselves in maintenance, explains the energy analyst.
Requested by franceinfo, EDF declares however “make every effort to optimize the availability of the nuclear fleet, in complete safety, for the passage of winter”. The electrician announces specific measures: “fuel savings are being made on reactors, in order to optimize their availability this winter. The maintenance operations schedule has been modified for fifteen scheduled reactor shutdowns, in order to keep them in production all winter.”
Based on the lists of reactor outages published by EDF and RTE, franceinfo has determined the forecast production capacity of the French nuclear fleet for this winter. According to RTE and our calculations, from 54% in October, this capacity should exceed 80% in mid-December. It will be close to 90% in January 2023, before starting to decrease from February, when it is planned to have around ten reactors shut down. However, these figures do not take into account any unplanned slowdowns, which could occur following incidents for example and cause production to be revised downwards.
These forecasts nevertheless seem too optimistic for all the energy specialists that franceinfo interviewed. “EDF announces that its production will go up to 56 gigawatts, but analysts are counting on 50 gigawatts instead”, tempers Nicolas Goldberg. The capacity of the French nuclear fleet amounts to around 61.4 gigawatts, according to Connaissance des Energies. For Emeric de Vigan, vice-president of Kpler, a company specializing in the analysis of energy market data, the estimates provided by EDF are generally overestimated by “5 to 10 gigawatts”. In the “worst case scenario”simulated by the German Economy Ministry as part of an assessment of the vulnerability of energy supplies across the Rhine, French nuclear power would only manage to produce “40 gigawatts” of electricity, which would be equivalent to “15 to 20 reactors unavailable”reveals Yves Marignac.
In the current energy crisis, “the key factor will be the arrival of the cold”, however supports Nicolas Goldberg. “If EDF still manages to produce 56 gigawatts in February, that will be very good, because it is the month when the temperatures are the lowest. But if a cold snap comes in November, we’re cooked“, warns the specialist.