Israel, which vows to respond forcefully to Iran’s missile attack on its territory on Tuesday, could use the opportunity to target the country’s nuclear facilities, experts warn.
“One could argue that this would even be the most opportune time for Israel to do so,” comments Ali Vaez, an Iran specialist attached to the International Crisis Group.
The government of Benjamin Netanyahu, which for years has accused Tehran of wanting to acquire nuclear weapons, currently has reinforced military protection from the United States in the Middle East and has increased the vulnerability of the Iranian regime by undermining the capabilities military of its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah.
The administration of American President Joe Biden, which says it is opposed to a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, is not in a position to impose its dictates on Mr. Netanyahu, in particular because the proximity of the American presidential election makes any pressure perilous, adds Mr. Vaez.
Any move to curb support for Israel in the current environment would represent a golden political opportunity for Republicans, who would accuse Democrats of abandoning a key ally in a time of crisis.
Ali Vaez, Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group
“The US government says it is against a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It remains to be seen whether this will be another red line that the Israelis are willing to ignore,” said Kristian Ulrichsen, a Middle East specialist at Rice University.
If it were to occur, a strike against nuclear installations would be far from certain to succeed, since the infrastructures in question are distributed over a large territory and often very protected.
“And that’s without counting the facilities that we don’t know about,” notes Mr. Ulrichsen.
After former US President Donald Trump rejected an agreement concluded in 2015 to regulate Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran put a brake on inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, complicating monitoring of its activities.
It is not impossible, notes Mr. Vaez, that the regime has secret installations which could allow it to resume its fissile material enrichment activities after Israeli strikes.
Such an attack, he warns, could even convince Tehran, which officially denies wanting to equip itself with an atomic bomb, to definitely move forward.
Jon B. Wolfsthal, security specialist at the Federation of American Scientists, warned on Twitter on Wednesday that this risk is real.
In a few months or years, a new wave of bombings would be required assuming that the positions of the new installations could be known, he warned.
The Israeli government, rather than embarking on this path, could decide, notes Mr. Vaez, to respond by essentially targeting military installations.
Energy infrastructure is another potential target, since it could add to the economic difficulties of Iran, which is the subject of numerous international sanctions.
The International Crisis Group analyst believes that the Iranian regime was well aware of the risks of an Israeli response in the event of strikes on its part.
The country’s leaders, however, concluded, he said, that Benjamin Netanyahu would interpret any lack of reaction on their part as a mark of weakness and would seek to “push the envelope a little further each time” in the absence of a response. consequent.
The regime notably refrained from avenging the attack on Iranian soil which cost the life of Hamas leader Ismaïl Haniyeh in July, after the United States argued that a ceasefire in the strip of Gaza that could ease tensions in the region was at hand.
The ceasefire did not materialize and Israel subsequently launched a large offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah, threatening one of Iran’s main levers to deter any attacks against it.
If the Iranian regime had done nothing while Hezbollah was gradually destroyed, its credibility would have been greatly damaged both domestically and regionally.
Kristian Ulrichsen, Middle East specialist at Rice University
The strikes against Israel, which caused limited damage, did not change anything in the confrontation with Hezbollah, which continued with renewed intensity on Wednesday – notably through ground clashes which cost the lives of eight IDF soldiers.
Mr. Ulrichsen believes that Tuesday’s attack could even ultimately “worsen the situation” in Iran.
“We have to see what the Israelis will do. We are in the escalation. Neither side wants to give in to the other. And they are both convinced that they are on the verge of striking a decisive blow,” notes the academic.