Has the revolt in Iran, which has been in the headlines for more than 40 days, become a real revolution? Certainly not yet. But this popular uprising is said to be laying the groundwork for a possible change of regime in the country of the mullahs – where violence and repression, so intrinsically linked to the survival of the Islamic Republic, no longer seem sufficient to quell the public dissatisfaction. But in this country where all opposition forces have been annihilated for 43 years, what are the possible alternatives to religious dictatorship?
Currently, no leading figure seems to emerge from the grassroots movement that has been destabilizing the Islamic Republic since the death of the young Mahsa Amini, arrested last September 13 in Tehran by the morality police because she was not wearing her hijab properly. An absence of leadership that may seem surprising, as calls to demonstrate multiply, as new professions such as doctors and dentists have joined the protest movement and as the revolt continues over time.
But where some analysts see a weakness, Houchang Hassan-Yari, a professor of comparative politics and international relations at the Royal Military College of Canada and a specialist in Iran, points to an undeniable advantage. “If an individual was known as the leader of this movement, the regime would eliminate him immediately,” he observes.
The shah’s son
Among those who campaign for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic – both inside and outside the country – a consensus seems to emerge around the need to see the emergence of a secular and democratic regime.
But to find a credible alternative to the theocracy in place, we must look abroad, and more particularly to the United States, where the eldest son of the last shah of Iran resides. Currently, the majority current in the Iranian streets would be in favor of the advent of a constitutional monarchy, headed by Reza Pahlavi, the heir to the imperial throne of Iran, exiled since 1979.
“Among the suitors, it is he who enjoys the greatest moral authority and the greatest legitimacy,” believes Houchang Hassan-Yari, himself Iranian. The political heritage of the father and grandfather of Reza Pahlavi (the two shahs of Iran) would have been transformed over the years into an asset, details the professor. “People have reached this stage of collective awareness and understanding of what the shahs did to lift Iran out of a state of extremely advanced underdevelopment. [à leur arrivée au pouvoir en 1925] to a very respectable country in the 1970s, before the revolution”, he analyzes. The Imperial State of Iran, however, has also been accused of committing abuses and practicing torture to silence political dissent.
The speech of Reza Pahlavi, who repeats that it is up to the Iranians to decide for themselves the political system they wish to see born, also garners support, continues the professor of political science. In a speech delivered last week in Washington, the son of the last shah of Iran declared that “all democratic political theories and forms of government, for me, are honourable”, before adding: “This what matters to me is the victory of popular sovereignty. »
In the event of the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, Reza Pahlavi proposes to hold a referendum so that the Iranians can choose for themselves the form that a new “democratic and secular” government would take which would respect the rights and freedoms of Iranians.
secular republic
Alongside this imperial faction, another force is the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), exiled in Paris, which is campaigning for the advent of a secular republic in Iran. Headed by Maryam Rajavi, this coalition “of democratic political forces against the mullahs’ regime”, which was formed in 1981, is made up of 500 members and “acts like a parliament in exile”, explains Afchine Alavi, member of NCRI Foreign Affairs Committee.
The organization has tabled a 10-point plan for “the Iran of tomorrow”. The freedoms of expression and of the press, the equality of women and men and the separation of religion and state would be at the heart of this new regime, which would recognize the autonomy of Iranian Kurdistan.
Inside Iran, the NCRI relies on the network of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, which takes action to denounce and destabilize the regime. Afchine Alavi did not want to reveal to the To have to the number of people who are members of this network, but he claims that the resistance units of the people’s mujahideen have increased fivefold in one year. “There is a rapid development, despite the fact that the mullahs’ regime arrests a lot of people,” he said.
The NCRI sent to the To have to audio and video recordings from People’s Mojahedin militants who are on the ground, but the authenticity of which could not be confirmed by The duty. In an audio recording, 18-year-old Noora, from the southeastern city of Kerman, claims that she and her classmates tore photos of Khamenei from his schoolbooks to burn them.
“No one believed the protests would last longer than a month, but they continue. […] Women should be able to choose whether or not to wear the hijab,” she said, before specifying that she does not want the return of the monarchy in Iran.
In a video, a young man named Ali from Kazerun, in the southwest of the country, says he sees fear in the eyes of his relatives, and especially in those of his mother, each time he takes part in a demonstration . “I tell them that we have to stand up against the oppressors,” he says. If we don’t, who will? The young man also adds: “I tell them that life is very beautiful, but not a life of humiliation. It is better to die standing than to live that life. »
Fall
According to Professor Hassan-Yari, the NCRI – despite being well organized and gathering support abroad – is not very popular in the streets of Iran. Many Iranians would still find it hard to forgive the mujahideen — which have previously been listed as terrorist organizations in the United States and Europe — for siding with Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. “It is unforgivable for an Iranian group to have collaborated with an enemy who invaded the country,” said Mr. Hassan-Yari.
But regardless of whether they are in favor of the return of the monarchy or the advent of a republic, the two currents agree in saying that, sooner or later, the mullahs’ regime will fall. “There is no dictatorship that is eternal, points out Afchine Alavi. And it’s not like in the past, people are no longer afraid of the regime’s repression. »
A reading shared by Houchang Hassan-Yari. “Before, it was fear that always won. Now, when a woman stands in front of a group of armed officers and shouts slogans calling for the destruction of the Islamic Republic, it means that the fear that served the Islamic Republic no longer exists”, he analyzes.
The death of Mahsa Amini could therefore well be the spark that will ignite the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei. But it remains to be seen whether the mullahs will unleash their repressive forces with even more violence, which have already caused more than 200 deaths within this revolt movement which does not seem to want to run out of steam.