“Iran finds itself in great difficulty in the region,” according to Jonathan Piron, historian specializing in Iran

Hezbollah is “extremely weakened” and this could lead to “a dislocation of the ‘axis of resistance'”, estimates Jonathan Piron on Saturday on franceinfo.

“Iran finds itself in great difficulty in the region”according to Jonathan Piron, historian specializing in Iran, invited to franceinfo on Saturday September 28, after the confirmation of the death of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The historian, associate researcher at the Group for Research and Information on Peace and Security (GRIP) in Brussels, believes that the death of the Shiite leader is “a very significant earthquake” in the region. “Hassan Nasrallah was a pillar of the ‘axis of resistance'”, this galaxy of Iran’s allies, including Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq. With its leader eliminated, Hezbollah is “extremely weakened” and this could leadr “a dislocation of the ‘axis of resistance'”estimates Jonathan Piron.

Iran’s response is now being scrutinized by world leaders. “Iran is really under pressure. It will be forced to demonstrate its power through a reaction”says the historian. “A show of force” is necessary, both to show that the regime is a “leader” “indisputable and unavoidable” with its partners “the axis of resistance”. The Iranian regime must also show that it is not “a paper tiger”which multiplies the “rhetorical statements”but who, “in fact, manifests a power that he does not have.”

In recent weeks, after the death of Hamas leader Ismaël Haniyeh, Iran has increased its warlike declarations against Israel. Threats which were not carried out, recalls Jonathan Piron. The diet “has sought to delay because he knows that in a direct confrontation with Israel, he would lose.”

Could the situation have consequences on Iran’s internal politics? “No, the vice is not loosening” in the country, explains Jonathan Piron. Security forces remain “very present”, “arbitrary arrests continue.” “If there is a weakening of the regime among the Iranian population, it would mainly come from the image of weakness that the regime projects,” concludes Jonathan Piron.