International | The revolt in Kazakhstan and the geopolitics of authoritarianism

In Kazakhstan, citizen protests have shaken a country long considered the most stable in Central Asia.

Helene Thibault
Visiting researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal, professor of political science at Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan

Against the backdrop of an unprecedented popular uprising, a struggle between elites is also taking shape which takes on the air of a palace revolution, the outcome of which ended in the intervention of foreign troops, especially Russians. This turbulent political episode reveals the fragility of authoritarian states while showing that security organizations contribute to maintaining authoritarianism.

Protests that began on January 2 in oil and gas-producing western Kazakhstan are the result of popular discontent over the 100% increase in the price of liquefied gas, used as fuel by many many motorists. They have spread to all major cities in this country the size of Western Europe, but with a population of only 18 million. Quickly, protesters demanded political reforms aimed at improving living conditions and countering corruption, which is endemic there. Faced with the escalation of violence in the former capital and economic center, Almaty, the Kazakh government has requested the intervention of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bit like NATO for six countries. from former USSR.

What was an internal political crisis has therefore become a geopolitical issue that will have long-term consequences on Kazakhstan’s internal politics, but also on regional dynamics.

The scale of the protests and the escalation of violence in Kazakhstan has taken all observers by surprise. After ruling the country for 28 years, President Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned from his post in March 2019 and the election of his successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, sparked small-scale protests that quickly died down.

This huge, multi-ethnic country was by far the most stable in the region and has significantly higher economic levels than its neighbours, such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are among the poorest countries in the world. The state has invested heavily in infrastructure over the past 30 years, including building a flamboyant capital in Astana, renamed Nur-Sultan by Tokayev in March 2019 in honor of Nursultan Nazarbayev. However, there is a big disparity between cities and the countryside, where infrastructure like roads, schools and hospitals are underfunded. The galloping inflation since the summer of 2021, coupled with the rise in the price of liquefied gas, has broken the camel’s back.

Fragility of authoritarianism in Central Asia

In neighboring Kyrgyzstan, there have already been three overthrows of government since 2005. In a poorer country where power is less centralized, competition between elites and citizen exasperation explain this political instability. In Kazakhstan, the government could at least count on some economic success. However, it seems that the population, being fully aware of the wealth generated by oil, gas and mineral revenues, could no longer tolerate the economic inequalities and injustices generated by corruption. The overconfidence of the authorities led them to ignore the warning signs of popular discontent.

These demonstrations reveal the fragility of authoritarian regimes. From a regional perspective, these events will certainly make the presidents of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, more authoritarian and poorer, think. However, popular revolts are rarely sufficient to bring about regime change. It is often the fragmentation of elites that determines the outcome of a political conflict.

The protests in Kazakhstan appear to have set in motion an escalation of violence that may amount to a public display of elite competition.

After accusing foreign-trained terrorists of being behind the violence on January 10, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called it an “attempted coup” instead. Although Nazarbayev has not been president for two years, until last week he retained official functions in the important Security Council, while he and his family enjoyed immense influence on the activities economy and politics of the country. Some observers believe that Nazarbayev’s inner circle wanted to take advantage of the surrounding chaos to reassert its authority over the state apparatus.

A political purge now seems to be underway: Karim Massimov, a former head of the security services very close to Nazarbayev, was arrested for treason while three of his close allies were found dead in the past few days. For his part, Nazarbayev has been invisible since the beginning of the troubles.

Authoritarian regional solidarity

Everything suggests that Tokayev, not having confidence in his own security forces, appealed to the CSTO to maintain and consolidate his authority over the state apparatus. Widely criticized for its more than tense relations with Ukraine, Russia, as a dominant member of the CSTO, is offered a great opportunity to reassert its role as a stabilizing power in a sphere of influence which it already dominates. .

However, this intervention reveals a trend: authoritarian states weakened by popular uprisings, such as Belarus in 2021 and Kazakhstan today, can count on authoritarian regional solidarity that will aim to maintain the status quo.

It is also no doubt for this reason that neighboring China, an important economic partner of Kazakhstan, offered its support for the actions of the CSTO. This authoritarian solidarity participates in the worrying phenomenon of the diffusion and consolidation of authoritarianism that has taken place in the world since the beginning of the 21st century.^and century.