Thanks to military capabilities strengthened during the Abe era, Japan today once again plays a leading role on the geopolitical chessboard of the region, increasingly counterbalancing the Chinese giant on questions of defense and security.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
While the eyes of the planet are riveted on China, where the Winter Olympics have just opened, those of the countries of the Indo-Pacific region have been fixed on the Asian giant for years already. At the forefront of China’s meteoric rise to power is Japan.
Long undisputed economic leader of Asia thanks to strong growth after the Second World War, Japan lost its luster in the 1990s, marking the beginning of two “lost decades”. The Japanese archipelago saw China take its place as the world’s second largest economy in 2010, which further undermined its confidence.
But whereas at the start of the last decade, many observers believed Japan was doomed to play a secondary role, a kind of foil for its American ally, the country has been undergoing a renaissance over the past ten years. plan of security and geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific. The main architect of this rise was former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in office between 2012 and 2020, the longest reign in the country’s history. Since his political debut, Abe dreamed of making Japan a “normal” country, freed from the weight of its defeat during the Second World War.
During nearly eight years in power, Abe strengthened Japan’s military capabilities and freed the Self-Defense Forces (the official name of Japan’s armed forces) from some of the constraints that limited their scope of action. He even sought to amend the pacifist constitution, imposed by the Americans in 1947 and which officially prevents Japan from possessing any “war potential”. Due to political obstacles, he had instead to content himself with “reinterpreting” it, in such a way as to allow the Self-Defense Forces to act more assertively in the region. This will lead neighboring countries – China and South Korea in the forefront – to accuse Abe of being revisionist and of having militaristic aims.
Today, 18 months after Abe stepped down for health reasons, his legacy continues to be felt.
Even though the economy is still struggling, largely due to the pandemic, Japan is now a much bigger player on defense and security issues in the Indo-Pacific region.
While strengthening its close military alliance with the United States, Japan now plays a role as a regional leader in its own right. It is notably active in monitoring North Korea’s illegal activities on the high seas and has increased its presence in the South China Sea, where territorial and maritime disputes pit China against Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and the United States. Vietnam. In addition to its alliance with the United States, Japan is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the “Quad”), a partnership that includes the United States, Australia and India, all countries whose relations with China have recently soured. In addition to its ties with regional powers, Japan has also strengthened its defense relations with several regional partners, including Australia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
It is perhaps in its resolutely complex and often strained relations with China that Japan’s growing self-assurance is most visible. While Tokyo seeks to maintain stable relations with its neighbor, given the crucial importance of the Chinese market for its economic health, it is now much more likely to criticize and resist Beijing’s actions and policies.
Traditionally reluctant to megaphone diplomacy, Japan has recently openly criticized China for its tightening grip on Hong Kong as well as human rights abuses in Xinjiang, a Chinese province where, according to estimates, Hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs, a Muslim minority, are held in camps.
The Japanese government is also increasingly critical of China’s growing pressure on Taiwan, the democratic island that Beijing promises to bring back under its control. A possible armed conflict between China and Taiwan could force an American intervention, with the likely involvement of Japan. Some leading figures in Japan’s political elite, including former Prime Minister Abe, openly support the idea of a military role for Japan in such a scenario. A proposition unthinkable 10 years ago.
* The author is also a collaborator at CERIUM
Closer than you think
Canada has been seeking for years to increase its presence in the Indo-Pacific, and should finally announce its strategy for the region this year. Japan could be a partner of choice in its implementation. In addition, Japan’s handling of its relations with Beijing could offer lessons to Canada, which is also seeking to redefine its approach to China.
For further
The work The Abe Legacy – How Japan Has Been Shaped by Abe Shinzo (Lexington Books, 2021)
The analysis “The Japanese vision of the world: an expanding horizon”, Le Grand Continent, August 2020
The analysis “Contrasting assessment of the Abe era: domestic tensions, diplomatic successes »French Institute of International Relations, August 2020
The online conference Japan’s Security Renaissance (Danish Institute for International Studies, YouTube, June 21, 2017)